Gartner Predicts 2002: Software

Letter From the Editor
Joanne Correia - 4 December 2001

Is the software market in a recession? It looks that way. This issue of the Software Spotlight analyzes impact of the worsening business confidence in 2001 and summarizes our predictions for 2002 through 2003 in the global software market.

The year 2001 started with promising growth, but quickly reacted to the failing stock market and economy news, causing slow sales, weakened consumer and business confidence, and the failure of many software companies. Looking to 2002, the question remains, how many software companies will weather the economic storm, and how long will it last? This Spotlight is a collection of articles based on DRI-WEFA forecasts, general economic news and three quarters of public company results for 2001. We formulate a range of possible forecast scenarios for 2001 through 2003.  Read more

LFTE

  

Overview
Majority of Software Markets Take Drastic Hit Until 2003
Thomas Topolinski - 3 December 2001

Gartner Dataquest's key predictions for most of the software product markets reveal greatly reduced license growth for 2001 and little or no recovery for 2002.

   Software License Spending Falls in 3Q01
Roger Fulton - 30 November 2001

Gartner Dataquest has been tracking the quarterly revenue of 85 leading software vendors for two years. Quarterly license revenue in 3Q01 dropped to their lowest point since 1999. Has the market bottomed out yet?

   Enterprise Management Software Markets: Predictions for 2001-2003 for NSM
Norma Schroder - 29 November 2001

Larger-than-expected IT spending cuts caused by a deeper and longer recession are reflected in revised forecasts for network and systems management software markets. The most likely annual growth rate for 2001 through 2003 is 3.8 percent.

   Predictions for 2001 Through 2003 for the Integration Broker Suite Market
Joanne Correia - 28 November 2001

The market for 2001 through 2003 for the integration broker suite segment will grow by only 6 percent to 8 percent year over year in 2001 vs. 108 percent in 2000.

   DBMS Software Market Stalled Through 2002
Colleen Graham - 28 November 2001

The economic malaise is causing increased pressure on IT spending and taking its toll on DBMS software vendors. In 2002, DBMS vendors achieving positive growth will be doing so at the direct expense of other vendors.

   Security Software Market: Predictions for 2001 Through 2003
Colleen Graham - 28 November 2001

The events of 11 September have and will continue to drive growth in the security software market, despite a tough economic environment.

   Drastic Drop in SCM Software Market
Chad Eschinger and Thomas Topolinski - 30 November 2001

The economic slowdown caused the SCM software market to fall from 72 percent growth in 2000 to estimated 4 percent in 2001. The impact is diminishing new sales and changing vendor and buyer behavior.

   CRM Software Market Growth Down Sharply
Thomas Topolinski and Chad Eschinger - 30 November 2001

The economic slowdown and facing recession has intensified the affects on the vendors within the CRM software market. The impact on CRM software has increased even more with recent third-quarter results.

   Decline Intensifies in 3Q01 for the ERP Software Market
Chad Eschinger and Thomas Topolinski - 30 November 2001

An estimated 26 percent decline, the slowing economy and 15 quarters of declining manufacturing growth have impacted the ERP software market.

   Internet Commerce Software Market Growth Rates Dive in 2001
Judith Rosall - 30 November 2001

The economic slowdown impacted the growth of worldwide Internet commerce software license sales. Third- and fourth-quarter results are expected to shift 2001 license forecast growth to negative 32 percent.

   Software Vendors Rely on Services to Shore Up Sagging License Revenue
Burke Oppenheimer and Tony Adams - 30 November 2001

Because of the economic downturn, new license sales have declined. Some vendors are relying on service revenue to help compensate, but caution should be applied when using this tactic.