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| GartnerG2 Says Europe Will Lead Worldwide Online Holiday Shopping Sales in 2002 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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SAN JOSE, Calif., October 28, 2002 — This holiday season will be especially joyful in Europe, as it becomes the No. 1 region for worldwide online sales in the fourth quarter of 2002, according to GartnerG2, a research service of Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB).
Worldwide online holiday sales in 2002 are projected to total $38.2 billion, a 48.4 percent increase from the same period last year (see Table 1). For the first time, Europeans will spend more money online this holiday season than any other region, with revenue reaching $15.77 billion. North America will be the No. 2 region with revenue at $15.66 billion. "Gains in Europe are being fueled by companies integrating their mail order and Web presence," said Gill Mander, business analyst for GartnerG2. "Europeans are using multiple channels, browsing printed catalogs and then ordering online. We're seeing this happen more, especially in the clothing and toy merchandise industries." Table 1 Worldwide Internet Retailing Sales Forecast Estimate for Fourth Quarter 2002 (Billions of U.S. Dollars)
Note: Figures exclude travel-related purchases and movie and event ticket sales.
Source: GartnerG2 (October 2002) With more than 108 million Americans using the Internet since 1999 or before, the built-in experience base is now quite high. GartnerG2 analysts said more than 77 million U.S. adults now buy products online throughout the year. "Because of the large installed base of Internet users in the United States, new user growth is slowing. Consequently, less of the increase in online holiday spending will come from the supply of 'new recruits' simply because there are fewer of them," said David Schehr, research director for GartnerG2. "But, for a growing number of U.S. consumers, the question is no longer if they will buy holiday gifts online, but simply how much will they buy." Asia/Pacific will experience modest growth for online holiday shopping this year. There will be a rapid increase of new Internet users, primarily in China, followed by India. The demographics of new Internet users, however, will inhibit growth in Asia/Pacific. "New users in India and China are much younger on average, with the vast proportion being 15 to 25 years old. These users have lower per-capita income ranges than the mature, Internet-penetrated markets in the region," said Lane Leskela, research director for GartnerG2. "Nevertheless, the fourth quarter is increasingly becoming a holiday shopping season in Asia/Pacific. Christmas has penetrated the local culture of many non-Christian societies as a gift-giving celebration." GartnerG2 analysts said electronic commerce is a small part of total retail sales, so e-commerce growth is less a function of retail ups and downs, and more a function of the experience of users with the Internet and the maturity of Internet retailers. "Retailers should be prepared for a fourth quarter online shopping onslaught, in spite of the global recession," said Michael Cruz, senior analyst for GartnerG2. "Markets are still maturing, so specific attention is on flawless execution for return customers. Retailers need to go where the market is: Europe is a huge online opportunity this year, be prepared to serve those markets like never before." Additional information is available in the GartnerG2 Q&A "Online Holiday Shopping 2002: Europe Fuels Worldwide Growth." This document provides a worldwide overview for online shopping in the fourth quarter of 2002. GartnerG2 is a research service from Gartner that helps business strategists guide and grow their businesses. Pragmatic and predictive, GartnerG2 focuses on the forces that have the greatest impact on industries and the strategies companies can deploy to grow their companies profitably. For more information on the report and about GartnerG2 services, please visit www.gartnerG2.com. About Gartner |
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Contact: Allison Haines Gartner + 1 203 316 6216 allison.haines@gartner.com |
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