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| Gartner Dataquest Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Market to Grow 12 Percent in 2003 |
| Analysts Examine Future of the Semiconductor Industry at Gartner Dataquest Technology Pipeline Conference |
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LOS ANGELES, Calif., November 6, 2002 - The worldwide semiconductor market is forecast to post double-digit growth in 2003 with revenue totaling $171.8 billion, a 12.1 percent increase from 2002 estimates, according to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB).
Gartner analysts presented these findings today during the Gartner Dataquest Technology Pipeline conference, which is taking place November 5-7 in Los Angeles. In 2001, worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $152.5 billion, a 32 percent decline from 2000. In 2002, the market is beginning to see signs of recovery, as revenue is projected to reach $153.3 billion, a 0.5 percent increase from 2001. "The semiconductor market recovery in 2002 has progressed as expected, with strong growth in the first half of 2002 as inventories were replenished, and weaker growth in the second half of the year," said Richard Gordon, principal analyst for Gartner Dataquest's semiconductor research group. "Although semiconductor sales in the third quarter of 2002 held up reasonably well, benefiting from a degree of seasonal strength, that strength has not carried forward into the fourth quarter and highlights the poor state of electronic equipment production." The worldwide digital cellular handset market is one of the few bright spots in the semiconductor industry and is driven primarily by a replacement cycle as the industry shifts from second generation (2G) to 2.5 generation (2.5G) cellular, which is good news for semiconductor vendors as it increases demand for silicon on rich handsets. Gartner Dataquest analysts said that while PC unit production growth has stalled in 2002, a corporate PC replacement cycle is becoming overdue and cannot be put off much longer. "A broader-based recovery in electronic equipment production, especially in the wired communications segment, is unlikely to begin until 2004, suggesting a limited impact on semiconductor sales in 2003," Gordon said. "2003 is forecast to be a transition year, as a phased recovery in end markets gradually works its way back to fuel incremental semiconductor sales growth." Additional analysis is being presented at the conference, "Gartner Dataquest Technology Pipeline: From Semiconductors to User Adoption." This conference not only examines chip-based technologies, but it also explores the whole technology food chain: from enabling technologies through products and end markets and user implementation/consumer adoption. The conference is being held November 5-7 at the Westin Century Plaza in Los Angeles. This forecast is also available to clients of Gartner Dataquest's Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide program. This program provides a comprehensive forecast database, which contains a detailed breakdown of the semiconductor forecast by application by device. This industry leading electronically delivered publication refreshes semiconductor forecast data for more than 70 applications and 20 device types each quarter. To subscribe to this service, please call 408-468-8000. More information on Gartner Dataquest's semiconductor research can be found in the Gartner Semiconductor Focus Area at http://www.gartner.com/1_researchanalysis/focus/semimkt_fa.html. Reports can be purchased on the Internet at www.gartner.com. Gartner Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry. About Gartner |
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Contact: Tom McCall Gartner +1 408 468 8312 tom.mccall@gartner.com |
