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| Gartner Dataquest Says Semiconductor Packaging and Assembly Market to Experience Double-Digit Growth in 2003 |
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SAN JOSE, Calif., December 19, 2002 — The worldwide semiconductor packaging and assembly segment of the industry is poised for growth in 2003, according to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB). After declining more than 26 percent to $24.8 billion in value in 2001, the total semiconductor packaging and assembly marketplace rebounded 7 percent in 2002 with revenue of $26.7 billion. The market is poised for 10.5 percent growth in 2003, with revenue of $ 29.6 billion.
The growth rate of the Semiconductor Assembly and Test Services (SATS) segment of the packaging market turned positive in 2002, after a decrease in 2001. SATS market revenue is estimated to be $8.2 billion in 2002, up from $7.14 billion in 2001. Gartner Dataquest analysts expect continued growth in 2003. However, similar to 2002, the growth may not be consistent. The SATS industry experienced three straight months of increases from July through October in 2002, but then it suffered slower sales in November. "These cyclic adjustments to the market will most likely continue into the first and possibly second quarter of 2003, as consistent long-term demand has yet to materialize," said Jim Walker, principal analyst for Gartner Dataquest's semiconductor research group. "The shift to array and leading-edge packaging is growing while continuing to be more sophisticated and complex. Many IDM's and OEM's desire to conserve their capital and are now actively seeking to outsource more of their packaging requirements," Walker said. "As the transition to these new packages has occurred more in recent months, the result is the return to growth and profitability in the outsourcing market." Gartner Dataquest says that now that the industry has bottomed out and slow growth has returned, production implementation of new package and assembly technologies can occur. Array packaging (CSP, flip chip and BGA), system-in-package (SIP) and stacked (3D) packaging have seen increasing growth in the last few months. Even these have been outpaced by the growth of the QFN (quad flat-pack, no lead) family of packages, which is witnessing the fastest ramp up of any package previously introduced in the industry. "This ramp up is due to the transition away from the larger, more mature SOIC family of packages," Walker said. "As 2002 came to a close, the industry is now in full transition from the first generation of surface mount packages (SOIC, PLCC, and QFP) to the next generation of smaller leadless and bumped families of packages (CSP and BGA). Also transitioning is the development of the multi-chip system-in-a-package (SIP) concept as a lower-cost approach to the system-on-a-chip (SOC)." All of these factors will result in increased packaging and assembly equipment expenditures as well. After two years of declining revenue, the worldwide semiconductor packaging and assembly equipment market is projected to total $2.9 billion in 2003, a 25 percent increase from 2002 revenue of $2.3 billion. Additional information is available in the Gartner Dataquest Alert "Semiconductor Packaging & Assembly: Review of 2002 and Outlook for 2003." This Alert provides a look back at the worldwide semiconductor packaging & assembly market, as well as a look forward at the trends shaping the industry in 2003. This research is produced by Gartner Dataquest's Semiconductors Electronic Manufacturing Worldwide Cluster Research. This research is designed to help companies focus on opportunities in semiconductor manufacturing and procurement covering the entire value chain of services, equipment and materials on through to the procurement of chips. More information about Gartner Dataquest semiconductor programs and reports can be found in the Gartner Semiconductor Focus Area at www.gartner.com/semiconductor-mkt. To subscribe to this service, please call 408-468-8000. Reports can be purchased on the Internet at www.gartner.com. Gartner Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry. Gartner, Inc. is a research and advisory firm that helps more than 10,500 clients leverage technology to achieve business success. Gartner's businesses consist of Research, Consulting, Measurement, Events and Executive Programs. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, and has 4,000 associates, including more than 1,000 research analysts and consultants, in more than 75 locations worldwide. Fiscal 2002 revenue totaled $907 million. For more information, visit www.gartner.com. |
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Contact: Christy Pettey Gartner +1 408 468 8312 christy.pettey@gartner.com |
