GartnerGroup Y2K Weekend Forecast:
Look for Isolated Failures and Few Interruptions to the General Public
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Companies and Governments Have Fixed Most Y2K Bugs
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STAMFORD, CT, December 28, 1999…GartnerGroup predicted in July 1997 that addressing the Year 2000 (Y2K) date change could cost industries and governments an estimated $300 billion to $600 billion worldwide.
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As a result of these vast global investments dedicated to solving Y2K challenges, GartnerGroup's forecast for the actual New Year's weekend indicates there will be isolated failures and few interruptions to the general public in the United States. GartnerGroup analysts offer the following insight:
- Fewer than 10 percent of all Y2K-related failures will occur during the two weeks surrounding January 1, 2000.
- Worldwide IT is a $2 trillion industry. The majority of large organizations have spent at least 10 percent of their IT budgets in 1998 and 1999 on Y2K remediation and testing. This figure alone indicates that the overall remediation costs are within the original GartnerGroup estimate of $300 billion to $600 billion worldwide.
- A few isolated problems are likely to occur related to the general public, with government services being the highest risk area.
- Most system failures will occur on back-end systems inside companies and should not impact the general public.
- Most public-use utilities will experience very few interruptions in service.
- Most companies will be in virus-alert mode over the boundary weekend.
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Increased awareness has led to more thorough contingency planning in areas where failures may occur.
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As the clock strikes midnight in time zones around the globe, IT professionals at government locations and corporate headquarters will be watching and testing their systems. According to GartnerGroup, back-end glitches will most likely not be reported beyond each organization. Apparent failures such as possible local power outages and poor Web site performances should be short-lived.
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"There has been an enormous demonstration of global teamwork in investing and executing these absolutely necessary Y2K computer fixes," said Matthew Hotle, Vice President, GartnerGroup Year 2000 Research. "Thanks to the work of tens of thousands of computer professionals who have made billions of lines of code ready for the Year 2000, we're forecasting a relatively quiet weekend with isolated problems."
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Hotle continued, "Still, CEOs and government officials must bring their beepers and phones with them New Year's Eve to stay in touch with their technology teams as they pass through the Year 2000 boundary."
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About GartnerGroup
GartnerGroup, the world's premier business technology advisor, was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut. GartnerGroup provides unrivaled thought leadership for more than 9,600 client organizations worldwide. It achieved 1999 revenue of $734 million, and has 80 locations worldwide. GartnerGroup's 3,400 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants, help clients achieve their business objectives through the intelligent and efficient use of technology. For more information about GartnerGroup's industry-leading research capabilities, services and events, visit us on the Web at www.gartner.com.
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