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Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Online Holiday Sales to Top $19 Billion in 2000
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San Jose, Calif., September 5, 2000 — Internet retailers must prepare for early holiday shoppers this year, as worldwide online holiday sales are forecast to reach $19.5 billion in 2000, a 85 percent increase over last year's revenue, according to Gartner Group, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB). In 1999, Internet holiday sales totaled $10.5 billion.
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"Explosive Internet access growth over the last two years, particularly in regions beyond North America, means that many Internet users are now familiar enough with the medium to make online purchases," said Astrid Van Dorst, senior analyst for Gartner's e-Business Services. "We've witnessed strong demand for Western goods by the affluent in Asia and support by governments, retail banks, card companies and national portals to 'Webify' their countries."
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North America will continue to account for more than half of online holiday sales this year (see Table 1), but the other regions are gaining market share. Europe and Asia/Pacific are projected to grow 96 and 91 percent, while Japan and Rest of World online holiday shopping sales this year will increase more than 180 percent of 200 percent over 1999 revenue.
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Worldwide Internet Retailing Sales Forecast Estimate for Fourth Quarter 2000
(Billions of U.S. Dollars)
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| Region |
4Q00 Revenue |
4Q00 Market Share (%) |
4Q99 Revenue |
4Q99 Market Share (%) |
Growth (%) |
| North America |
10.72 |
54.9 |
6.31 |
59.9 |
69.9 |
| Europe |
5.38 |
27.5 |
2.74 |
26.0 |
96.4 |
| Asia/Pacific |
1.60 |
8.2 |
0.84 |
8.0 |
90.5 |
| Japan |
1.31 |
6.7 |
0.46 |
4.4 |
184.8 |
| Rest of World |
0.52 |
2.7 |
0.18 |
1.7 |
188.9 |
| Total |
19.53 |
100.0 |
10.53 |
100.0 |
85.5 |
Source: Gartner (September 2000)
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During the holiday season last year, many consumers were making their first purchase over the Internet. Many Internet retailers were not prepared for the large number of shoppers, so some Web sites had difficulties fulfilling orders in time for the holidays. Gartner analysts said Internet users and Internet retailers both learned from lessons last year to better prepare for this holiday season.
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"In an effort to avoid stock outages, and long delivery times, consumers are likely to shop earlier as they shop more in 2000," said Robert Labatt, principal analyst for Gartner's e-Business Services. "Retailers have learned their lesson, too: They have spent the year implementing real time inventory systems and are motivating consumers to shop earlier in an effort to deliver the best shopping experience possible to consumers and their children."
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Gartner analysts will provide additional insight into the Internet retailing market during Gartner's Symposium/ITxpo 2000, October 16-20 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. This event is the IT industry's largest and most strategic conference providing business leaders with a look at the future of IT. Some of the speakers at this year's event include Hewlett-Packard's chairman and CEO, Carly Fiorina; Sun Microsystems' chairman and CEO, Scott McNealy; and Microsoft's president and CEO, Steve Ballmer.
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To register for Gartner's Symposium/ITxpo 2000, please call 1-800-778-1997 or 1-203-316-6757, or go to Gartner Symposiums. Members of the media can register by contacting Lisette Kwong at 1-212-320-2330 or lkwong@tsicomm.com.
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Additional information on Internet retailing issues is available to subscribers of Gartner's e-Business Services. These programs are part of a wide range of Gartner services examining the e-business industry. These programs are designed to help senior executives, strategic planners and investors capitalize on emerging opportunities by providing research and analysis on electronic commerce and Internet marketplaces. Additional information on these programs is available on Gartner's Web site at e-Business Focus Area
. To subscribe to these services, please call 800-419-DATA or 408-468-8009.
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