|
Gartner Dataquest Says Worldwide Semiconductor Market to Grow 37 Percent in 2000
|
|
Semiconductors 2000 Conference to Provide Detailed Analysis on the Industry
|
|
San Jose, Calif., October 9, 2000 - The worldwide semiconductor industry is on pace to have revenue eclipse $231.6 billion in 2000, an increase of 37 percent over 1999 revenue, according to Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB). Gartner Dataquest analysts said that every major component category is reaching strong double-digit growth this year.
|
|
"It has taken the industry five years to return to the strong revenue growth achieved in 1995, when the industry grew almost 38 percent," said Mary Olsson, principal analyst for Gartner Dataquest's worldwide semiconductor group. "Yet, despite the growth resemblance between 1995 and 2000, we do not believe 2001 will be a year of changing business conditions as it was in 1996. Barring any major economic downturn or earth-shaking disaster, the industry in 2002 is forecast to reach low double-digit growth, with a moderate but cyclical downturn in the forecast for 2003. A return to moderate growth is expected in 2004."
|
|
The memory segment is showing the strongest growth, as it is on pace to increase by more than 60 percent. DRAM revenue is forecast to increase to $37 billion in 2000, a 58 percent increase from 1999. With continued healthy growth in the memory sector, the worldwide semiconductor market is projected to top $339.5 billion in 2004 (see Table 1).
|
Table 1
Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast (Millions of U.S. Dollars)
| | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
| Total Market | 169,136 | 231,601 | 295,180 | 336,150 | 320,930 | 339,545 |
| Growth (%) | 21.7 | 36.9 | 27.5 | 13.9 | -4.5 | 5.8 |
Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2000)
|
|
Revenue growth in 2000 is being strengthened by new application consumption. Gartner Dataquest analysts said semiconductor consumption is expanding beyond the PC realm, into new communications applications. This can be seen in revenue growth for all semiconductor categories, especially logic, analog, discrete and optical semiconductors. These four product areas are experiencing growth rates in 2000 of more than 36 percent, 27 percent, 25 percent and 31 percent, respectively.
|
|
"The industry is running at high capacity with reports of shortages and tight capacity for flash, microprocessors (MPUs) and some DRAM architectures," said Mark Giudici, principal analyst in Gartner Dataquest's worldwide semiconductor group. "Near-term spot pricing is reacting to inventory building and should not be confused with the overall industry supply/demand picture. Stronger demand and some product allocation in late 2000 will result in higher prices for DRAM, flash and some SRAM densities has forced lead times out beyond 20 weeks."
|
|
Flash suppliers have indicated that strong bit growth and new design wins will keep flash prices high through 2001. Flash capacity is expected to remain tight through 2001 until new capacity comes on board in late 2001 and into early 2002. "Demand for flash architectures has spread across all application segments. The biggest consumer of flash, cellular handsets, typically uses 2 megabytes, but densities will increase as next-generation infrastructure is increasingly deployed," Ms. Olsson said.
|
|
Detailed analysis on the future of the semiconductor industry will be announced during Gartner Dataquest's Semiconductors 2000 conference, October 30-31 at the Hyatt Regency La Jolla at Aventine, in San Diego, California. In its 26th year, this conference provides business-critical information for senior executives, managers, planners and developers from chip makers, chip users, semiconductor equipment and materials providers and investors. Additional information on Gartner Dataquest's Semiconductors 2000 conference can be found on Gartner's Web site at
www.gartner.com/semicon/usa, or by calling 1-800-778-1997 or 1-203-316-6757.
|
|
More information about Gartner Dataquest's programs, descriptions of recent research reports, and full text of press releases can be found on the Internet at www.dataquest.com. To purchase reports or subscribe to Gartner Dataquest programs, please call 800-419-DATA, or 408-468-8009.
|
|
Gartner Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry.
|
About Gartner
Gartner provides unrivaled thought leadership for more than 10,000 organizations, helping clients to achieve their business objectives through the intelligent and efficient use of technology. Additionally, Gartner helps technology companies identify and maximize technology market opportunities. Gartner's technology content and strong brand reach IT professionals globally through Gartner Research, its research and advisory unit, Gartner Services, its custom consulting unit; Gartner Events, including Gartner's renowned Symposia; and, at www.gartner.com. Gartner subsidiary TechRepublic, Inc. (
www.techrepublic.com) is the leading online destination developed exclusively for IT professionals by IT professionals. Gartner, founded in 1979 and headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, achieved fiscal 1999 revenues of $734 million. Gartner's 4,000 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants, are in more than 80 locations worldwide. For more information about Gartner's industry-leading products and services, please visit us on the Web at www.gartner.com.
|
|
CONTACT:
|
|
|
|
