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ID Number: R-22-2013



This research is provided for historical perspective;
portions of this document may not reflect current conditions.





IT Watch: January 2004
23 January 2004
 
Brian Smith   Ann Buenzli   Scott Evans  

We predict strong growth in IT demand in 2004 in organizations of all sizes given a projected Technology Demand Index (TDI) of 138 for Q4 2003. Growth is strongest in the public sector, technology manufacturing/communications, and health services.








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Table of Contents


    
 Analysis

1.0
    
 Overall IT Demand

1.1
    
 Current Demand: Overall Current Demand Continued to Decline in the Fourth Quarter
1.2
    
 Projected Demand: Projected Demand Index Ends 2003 in a Strong Position
1.3
    
 Top Vendors by Category
1.4
    
 Top Vendors by Index Increase
2.0
    
 General Sector Trends

2.1
    
 Current Demand: 2003 Ends With Reported Spending Below Budgeted Levels for All Sectors
2.2
    
 Projected Demand: Putting Projected Sector Demand in Context
3.0
    
 What to Watch
Appendix A.
    
 Acronym Key
Appendix B.
    
 Vertical Breakouts of Quarterly Projected Demand Indices
Appendix C.
    
 Overall Sector and Product Index Scores


List of Figures


Figure 1. 
 Actual IT-Related Spending in 2003 Compared to Anticipated Spending (Weighted Data)
 

Figure 2. 
 Current Demand by Company Size
 

Figure 3. 
 Weighted Projected Aggregate Demand by Quarter Broken by organization size here.
 

Figure 4. 
 Average Year-to-Year Growth in IT Budgets
 

Figure 5. 
 Overall Current and Projected Technology Demand Indices
 

Figure 6. 
 Demand — Side Spending Projections vs. IT spending forecasts
 

Figure 7. 
 Top Vendors by Product Category: Projected 2004 Demand Indices From Q4 2003 Data
 

Figure 8. 
 Vendors With Strongest Change in Projected Demand Indices From Q3 to Q4
 

Figure 9. 
 Sectors — Current Index
 

Figure 10. 
 Sector Indices by Organization Size (Projected Spending)
 

Figure 11. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Small Organizations
 

Figure 12. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Midsize Organizations
 

Figure 13. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Large Organizations
 

Figure 14. 
 Summary — Projected Aggregate Index
 

Figure 15. 
 Summary — Q4 Projected Hardware Index
 

Figure 16. 
 Summary — Q4 Projected Software Index
 

Figure 17. 
 Summary — Q4 Projected Networking and Telecommunications Index
 

Figure 18. 
 Summary — Q4 Projected IT Services Index
 

Figure 19. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Technology Manufacturing/Communications
 

Figure 20. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Manufacturing
 

Figure 21. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Education
 

Figure 22. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Government
 

Figure 23. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Health Services
 

Figure 24. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Services
 

Figure 25. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Retail
 

Figure 26. 
 Quarterly Projected Indices — Financial
 

Figure 27. 
 Projected Dollar Spending Growth by Sector
 

Figure 28. 
 Overall and Sector Indices
 

Figure 29. 
 Product Index — Hardware
 

Figure 30. 
 Product Index — Software
 

Figure 31. 
 Product Index — Networking and Telecommunications
 

Figure 32. 
 Product Index — IT Services
 



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