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Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2004
30 July 2004
 
Jackie Fenn   Alexander Linden   Jim Tully   John Davison   Stephen E. Smith   Mark A. Margevicius   French Caldwell   Nikos Drakos   Mark Raskino   Whit Andrews   Rafe John Graham Ball   Michael A. Silver   Thomas J. Bittman   Phillip Redman   Bern Elliot   Ken Dulaney   Yefim V. Natis   Ray Valdes   Nick Jones   Leslie Fiering   Frederique Makharine   Mary Knox   Rita E. Knox   Bob Hafner   Lou Latham   David Mario Smith   Michael J. King  

The 37 technologies featured on this Hype Cycle will be the most transformational in their impact in the five- to 10-year time frame, or are noteworthy due to overhype or recent maturity.







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Table of Contents


    
 Analysis

1.0
    
 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2004
2.0
    
 On the Rise

2.1
    
 Protein-DNA Logic
2.2
    
 Computer-Brain Interface/Thought Recognition
2.3
    
 Molecular Transistors
2.4
    
 Truth Verification
2.5
    
 RFID (Item)
2.6
    
 Trusted Computing Group
2.7
    
 Augmented Reality
2.8
    
 Information Extraction
2.9
    
 Wikis
2.10
    
 Social Network Analysis
3.0
    
 At the Peak

3.1
    
 Electronic Ink/Digital Paper
3.2
    
 Micro Fuel Cells
3.3
    
 Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices
3.4
    
 Inkjet Processes
3.5
    
 External MPP Grids
3.6
    
 Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users
3.7
    
 Semantic Web
3.8
    
 802.16d WiMAX
3.9
    
 Unified Communications
3.10
    
 UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia
4.0
    
 Sliding Into the Trough

4.1
    
 LEPs/OLEDs
4.2
    
 Service-Oriented Architecture
4.3
    
 Really Simple Syndication
4.4
    
 Web-Services-Enabled Business Models
4.5
    
 Mesh Networks — Sensor
4.6
    
 Mesh Networks — Wide Area
4.7
    
 RFID (Case/Pallet)
4.8
    
 Smartphone
4.9
    
 Tablet PC
4.10
    
 XBRL
4.11
    
 Wi-Fi Hot Spots
5.0
    
 Climbing the Slope

5.1
    
 Location "Aware" Services
5.2
    
 VoIP
5.3
    
 Internal MPP Grids
6.0
    
 Entering the Plateau

6.1
    
 Speech Recognition for Telephony and Call Center
6.2
    
 Instant Messaging
6.3
    
 Internal Web Services
7.0
    
 Conclusions
Appendix A.
    
 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2003
Appendix B.
    
 Hype Cycle Phase Definitions
Appendix C.
    
 Benefit Rating and Maturity Level Definitions
Appendix D.
    
 Acronym Key


List of Figures


Figure 1. 
 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2004
 

Figure 2. 
 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2003
 

Figure 3. 
 Benefit Ratings
 

Figure 4. 
 Maturity Levels
 



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