Hype Cycle for PC Technologies, 2005

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ID Number: G00127662

This research is provided for historical perspective;
portions of this document may not reflect current conditions.

19 July 2005

Anthony Kros Leslie Fiering Mark A. Margevicius Mikako Kitagawa Martin Reynolds Brian Gammage Michael A. Silver Martin Gilliland Amy Teng Andy Kok Mun Woo Federica Troni Lillian Tay Kanae Maita Todd Kort Rafe John Graham Ball Jim Tully Ranjit Atwal Ken Dulaney Luis Anavitarte Joseph Unsworth Rachna Ahlawat

The cost of succumbing to PC hype is constant churn in the installed base with higher system image and support costs. Although consumers often opt for the latest technology, businesses looking to maintain the homogeneity of their installed bases are more conservative in adopting new technology.

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Table of Contents

1.0

The Hype Cycle

2.0

On the Rise

2.1		Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Consumers (Mature Markets)
2.2		64-Bit Desktop Computing
2.3		Multicore Processors
2.4		OLED Screens
2.5		Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Consumers (Emerging Markets)
2.6		Wireless USB/UWB
2.7		PC Virtualization Software
2.8		Smart USB Drives
2.9		Blade PCs
2.10		Hardware Virtualization

3.0

At the Peak

3.1		Three-Dimensional LCD Displays
3.2		TVPC
3.3		WiMAX Mobile
3.4		Blu-ray vs. HD DVD
3.5		Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users
3.6		ExpressCard
3.7		Micro Fuel Cells

4.0

Sliding Into the Trough

4.1		Open-Source Office Products
4.2		LeGrande Technology
4.3		Trusted Computing Group
4.4		Bluetooth Peer-to-Peer
4.5		Tablet PC

5.0

Climbing the Slope

5.1		Linux on Desktop for Data Entry Workers
5.2		Serial ATA
5.3		Fingerprint Reader
5.4		No Execute Flag

6.0

Entering the Plateau

6.1		Smart-Card Reader
6.2		Hyperthreading
6.3		Server-Based Computing/Thin Client
6.4		Wi-Fi 802.11 a/g

7.0

Off the Hype Cycle

7.1		Flat-Panel Displays
7.2		USB Flash Drives

8.0

Appendix A: Previous Version of the Hype Cycle

9.0

Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels

List of Tables

	Table 1.	Hype Cycle Phases

	Table 2.	Benefit Ratings

	Table 3.	Maturity Levels

List of Figures

	Figure 1.	Hype Cycle for PC Technologies, 2005

	Figure 2.	Hype Cycle for PC Technologies, 2004

Personal Computing Client Hardware
Emerging Technologies

© 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

Resource Id: 483907