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Hype Cycle for Consumer Technologies, 2005
3 August 2005
 
Laura Behrens   David W. Haueter   Allen Weiner   Mike McGuire   Thilo Koslowski   James Brancheau   David Mitchell Smith   Patti A. Reali   Van L. Baker   Carolina Milanesi   Daren Siddall  

The consumer technology landscape, once dominated by gadgets, is evolving into an interdependent web of devices, platforms and services. Significant "silos" remain, however, and some technically mature offerings will not be able to overcome business barriers to their success in the consumer market.





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Table of Contents


    
 Analysis

1.0
    
 The Hype Cycle
2.0
    
 On the Rise

2.1
    
 Mobile Device Integration Into Automobiles
2.2
    
 Digital Radio — Terrestrial
2.3
    
 Portable Digital Video Players
2.4
    
 IPTV
2.5
    
 Broadband Video Phone (Device, Not Teleconferencing Services)
2.6
    
 Digital Home Interoperability
2.7
    
 DVD Recorders in Consumer Electronics Devices
3.0
    
 At the Peak

3.1
    
 Legal File Sharing/Legitimate P2P
3.2
    
 Mobile TV Broadcast
3.3
    
 Digital Media Centers
3.4
    
 Wireline Home Networking — Coaxial and Powerline
3.5
    
 Mobile TV On-Demand
4.0
    
 Sliding Into the Trough

4.1
    
 Residential VoIP
4.2
    
 High-Definition TV Displays (Plasma, LCD, DLP, Others)
4.3
    
 Digital Camcorders (With MPEG4/H.264 Capability)
4.4
    
 Interactive TV
4.5
    
 Video Chat Over IP
4.6
    
 Video on Demand
4.7
    
 Digital Radio — Satellite
4.8
    
 Personal Video Recorders
5.0
    
 Climbing the Slope

5.1
    
 Consumer Telematics
5.2
    
 Digital Music Players
5.3
    
 DVD Recorders in PCs
5.4
    
 Household Wi-Fi
6.0
    
 Entering the Plateau

6.1
    
 Wireline Home Networking — Ethernet CAT-5
6.2
    
 Broadband Cable and DSL
6.3
    
 Digital TV (Broadcast)
6.4
    
 Universal Search
6.5
    
 Digital TV (Cable, Satellite)
7.0
    
 Off the Hype Cycle

7.1
    
 Converged Digital Photo Devices
7.2
    
 Wireline Home Networking — Phoneline
8.0
    
 Appendix A: Previous Iteration of the Hype Cycle
9.0
    
 Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels

    
 Recommended Reading


List of Tables


Table 1.  
 Hype Cycle Phases
 

Table 2.  
 Benefit Ratings
 

Table 3.  
 Maturity Levels
 

List of Figures


Figure 1. 
 Hype Cycle for Consumer Technologies, 2005
 

Figure 2. 
 Hype Cycle for Consumer Technologies, 2004
 



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© 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.




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