ID Number: G00169391



The New Hype Cycle Y-Axis Measure: Expectations
29 July 2009
 
Mark Raskino   Jackie Fenn  

For more than a decade, the Hype Cycle y-axis variable has been "visibility," estimated by the judgment of expert analysts. Here, we refine both the variable and the indicators.




Price: US$495.00

Pages: 16






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Table of Contents


    
 Analysis

1.0
    
 What Leads Us to Update the Hype Cycle?
2.0
    
 Expectations — The Revised Variable
3.0
    
 Estimating the Level of Expectations Using Proxy Indicators

3.1
    
 News Volume Analysis
3.2
    
 News Sentiment Analysis
3.3
    
 Financial Factors
3.4
    
 Web and Market Research Data Indicators

3.4.1
    
 Digging Deeper — Into Component Indicators of the Hype Cycle
4.0
    
 The Limitations of Metrics
5.0
    
 Future Research Directions

    
 Recommended Reading


List of Figures


Figure 1. 
 Components of the Hype Cycle
 

Figure 2. 
 A News Volume Analysis Supported Hype Cycle for the Term "Business Model"
 

Figure 3. 
 A News Sentiment Analysis Supported Hype Cycle for RFID, 2005
 

Figure 4. 
 Demonstration of News Sentiment Analysis to Map a Hype Cycle
 

Figure 5. 
 Hype Cycle Shape Curve Shape in Amazon's Share Price, 1998-2005
 

Figure 6. 
 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies and the Share Price for Raisio K Stock, 1995-2003
 

Figure 7. 
 Plateau of Productivity and the Share Price for Raisio K, 2004-2009
 

Figure 8. 
 Foreign Investment in China Appears to Follow the Hype Cycle Pattern
 

Figure 9. 
 A Daimler Company Analyst's Plot of a Hype Cycle Type Curve for a Corporate Blog
 

Figure 10. 
 Hype Cycle Component Indicators for Podcasting
 



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