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On 17 July 2001, Microsoft announced that it will not include the software needed to run Java in the upcoming release of its new operating system, Windows XP.
Microsoft's decision not to include Java support in the upcoming release of Windows XP is likely part of an overall plan to phase out Java in preparation for eventual and complete abandonment. The Java Virtual Machine (JVM) will not appear in Windows XP unless an original equipment manufacturer includes it — Microsoft said Compaq Computer and Dell Computer will continue to ship JVM in their configured systems — or unless the user performs a 5MB download. Instead, Java support will become an "install on demand" element whereby users have the option of downloading Java support as an optional feature. Similar support will be included in future versions of Internet Explorer (IE), as Microsoft will no longer include Java within the standard IE distribution.
In Gartner's view, Microsoft's decision will come as a minor blow to Java applet usage because it will eventually drive usage toward Microsoft's replacement for ActiveX, expected by mid-2002 (0.8 probability). Java applet usage, which is already small, will likely remain static on consumer-oriented Internet Web sites — Gartner estimates that less than 5 percent of all public Web sites use Java applets today. However, Gartner believes that corporate intranet and extranet solutions will continue to use Java applets in combination with Sun Microsystems' Java Plug-In. Although Java started out as client technology with a heavy emphasis on its applet mechanism, the vast majority of Java solutions today are server-based. The Microsoft decision will have virtually no impact on any server implementations.
Enterprises cannot assume Java will be installed in browsers but must manage it as they do with other plug-ins. They can use the XP and IE "install on demand" or its installation management features to ensure that the Virtual Machine is installed. XP installations upgraded from previous operating system releases will continue to include Java support. Enterprises that build their own system images should treat Java as they do other plug-ins: One typical strategy is to build the plug-in into the image if they see any chance users will need it.
Analytical Sources: David Smith, Internet Strategies, and Mark Driver, Java Strategies & Technologies
Written by Dean Lombardo, gartner.com
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