Service-oriented development of applications (SODA) isn't something that is or should be done simply because it's "cool" or "techy." It's a set of precepts that make solid business sense. However, it's been difficult to talk about what this really means. What's been missing is a real model that attempts to predict the benefits of SODA. That is what we will present here.
SODA is not a new concept; we've been discussing these methods and standards for many years. Leading organizations are already using SODA development in portions of their organizations. This trend will continue and expand rapidly during the next five years.
The major reason SODA is so valuable to application development (AD) organizations is that if done properly, it will enable organizations to deliver software better, faster and cheaper. Here, we'll concentrate on the ability of SODA delivery to reduce the overall costs of deploying software.
1. First, we'll predict the return on investment (ROI) that SODA AD is capable of delivering.
2. Next, we'll predict the overall expense reductions that an AD organization should be able to achieve using SODA concepts.
Both of these are key. The first is the typical hype that's generated by the vendor community. Organizations can and will obtain ROIs in the 6-to-1 range on SODA investments during a five-year payback period (0.7 probability). However, that's not the overall benefit that will be realized by AD organizations. SODA is predicated on reuse. Reuse of artifacts (from patterns and frameworks to test plans and test beds) gives benefits only on the projects in which reuse principles are applied. These projects are limited in nature and scale. So, a further prediction is necessary one that attempts to predict the overall percentage of expense reduction. As a result of our model, in the fourth year and beyond, the average AD organization will be able to reduce its overall expenses by 10 percent to 15 percent (0.7 probability). By making these predictions, we can be optimistic (a major ROI) and realistic (overall good, but not massive, reductions in annual budgets).
SODA has great potential for delivering better, less-expensive software more swiftly. With the Gartner SODA ROI model, you can predict, based on a set of parameters, how much benefit your organization might realize.

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