Gartner Semiconductor Briefing: New Postrecession Fundamentals

  • 15  October  2009
    7:30 AM – 12:45 PM
  • Location:
  • San Jose Double Tree Hotel
  • 2050 Gateway Place
  • San Jose, CA. 95110
  • San Jose, UNITED STATES
  • (408) 221-3619


About this Event



Agenda

7:30 a.m. - 8:30 a.m.
Registration and Continental Breakfast

This is a great opportunity to network with local peers who share similar issues.



8:30 a.m. - 8:40 a.m.
Welcome & Introduction


8:40 a.m. - 9:00 a.m.
Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast, 2008-2013
Bryan Lewis

Second-quarter semiconductor revenue was better than expected and rose 17% sequentially, led by stronger-than-expected PC, cell phone and LCD TV sales. But Gartners worldwide semiconductor forecast profile is still shaped by commodity memory fluctuations. Commodity memory capacity shortages though 2H09 and into 2012 are related to a lack of profit and associated investment, and these factors will likely cause a surge in commodity capacity by 2011, triggering a supply downturn after 2012. While price cuts on PCs and LCD TVs and various government stimulus packages are encouraging tangible near-term demand, the longer-term impact of mobile phone and PC architecture changes is less predictable. We examine the outcome of these interrelated issues and present our worldwide semiconductor forecast through 2013.



9:00 a.m. - 9:45 a.m.
Panel Session: Validating the Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast
Jim Tully

This semiconductor forecast panel session will discuss the major factors that determine our worldwide semiconductor revenue forecast. Critical issues include financial viability of vendors, ongoing semiconductor ASP declines, device integration, the lack of an obvious killer application, the industry's long-term CAGR and the potential economic recession in China. In this session, we invite our audience to participate as we explore the risks, the upside/downside scenarios and the new industry fundamentals that will impact future semiconductor forecasts.



9:45 a.m. - 10:45 a.m.
Home Entertainment Consumer Electronics

  • Home NAS Poised to Enable a Video-Content Revolution
    Sergis Mushell, Principal Research Analyst
  • Who Wins From the Myriad Ways to Access Digital Video?
    Peter Middleton, Principal Research Analyst
  • The Future of Consumer Displays and Home Networking Technologies
    Paul O'Donovan, Principal Research Analyst Many believe that the next wave of consumer demand for semiconductor content lies in the living room. This session will answer just how the connected consumer will manage new content delivered to the home. How will they store, deliver and display this digital content, and how will this impact consumer semiconductor demand? How will "on demand" video and services drive localized storage needs, whether in the form of a NAS device or a set-top box? And finally, once the content is brought into the home, how will it be distributed, and how will it be displayed? Exploring these questions is key to understanding the next generation of consumer technologies and their impact on the semiconductor industry.



  • 10:45 a.m. - 11:15 a.m.
    Break


    11:15 a.m. - 11:45 a.m.
    Semiconductor and Electronics Emerging Technologies
    Jim Tully

    Emerging Technologies Shaping the Future Semiconductor Industry
    A broad range of technologies are at the core of the electronics and semiconductor industry. They form the basis of new products, services and processes. They also provide many benefits, such as lower-power solutions, better price/performance and increased flexibility. In this session, we present Gartners perspective on selected emerging technologies that will impact the future semiconductor industry and the timing of their impact.



    11:45 a.m. - 12:45 p.m.
    Chip-Manufacturing Industry

  • Moore's Law Is Dead; Long Live Moore's Law
    Dean Freeman, Research VP
  • The Economic Viability of New Back-End Process Technologies
    Mark Stromberg, Principal Research Analyst
  • Postrecession Capital Investment Strategies
    Bob Johnson, Research VP Semiconductor industry growth has irrevocably slowed, and a key question for many is whether industry participants can maintain new process technology advances at the rate demanded by chip makers. What overall competitive advantage will new technologies and advanced process nodes offer when compared with their cost? Will staying on Moore's Law remain affordable for the industry? In this session, we analyze wafer fab equipment futures, back-end manufacturing technologies, and the long-term issues that determine capital spending and new capacity demand.



  • 12:45 p.m.
    Thank you and Closing Remarks




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