Cloud computing, open source development tools in India, business process management suite (BPMS), and video telepresence are some of the technologies that have moved into the Peak of Inflated expectations, according to the Gartner Inc. Hype Cycle for information and communications (ICT) in India.
Gartner's Hype Cycle reports provide a snapshot of a key area of IT or business. Senior executives, CIOs, strategists, business developers and technology planners should consider these technologies when developing emerging business and technology portfolios.
Data center bridging, fabric-based computing, navigation solutions, knowledge process outsourcing (KPO)-market analytics, mobile over-the-air (OTA) payments are some of the technologies that have moved into the Technology Trigger (see Figure 1). Those technologies on the Technology Trigger may take longer to achieve market acceptance, if they achieve it at all. These technologies will have less than 5 percent market penetration and long periods to mainstream adoption - generally a minimum of two years, and as long as 10 years.
"Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) has already advanced to the Plateau of Productivity on the Hype Cycle but will continue to appear in future Hype Cycles on India," said Aman Munglani, principal research analyst. "The ERP wave in India has moved beyond the large-enterprise accounts and has expanded into the small and midsize business (SMB) segment, as well. The ability to increase SMBs' productivity, making them more competitive, is a big draw for ERP in this segment. The technologies slipping toward the Trough of Disillusionment are in the stage of proof points (thin provisioning, data deduplication, SOA, SAAS, mini-notebooks and business intelligence platforms)."Figure 1
Technologies that will hit the mainstream in less than five years include unified communications, and cloud computing. They will be transformational across a range of industries, according to Gartner.
"The Hype Cycle reports are a convenient way to look at a set of relevant technologies and trends," said Mr.Munglani. "Many Gartner clients draw from multiple Hype Cycles, augmented with industry- or company-specific topics to create their own Hype Cycles and Priority Matrices as part of their annual technology planning. Technology providers use Hype Cycles as a way to understand the likely market reaction to their products and services, while investors watch for technologies that are on the rise in a Hype Cycle to try to catch them before they move into mainstream adoption."
Gartner introduced the idea of the Hype Cycle in 1995 as a commentary on the common pattern of human response to technology. Since then, the use of Hype Cycles has expanded both within Gartner and by its clients, as a graphical way to track multiple technologies within an IT domain or technology portfolio. Gartner's Hype Cycle characterizes the typical progression of an emerging technology, from over-enthusiasm through a period of disillusionment to an eventual understanding of the technology's relevance and role in a market or domain. Each phase is characterized by distinct indicators of market, investment and adoption activities.
Additional information is available in "Hype Cycle for ICT in India, 2010." The report is available on Gartner' Web site at http://www.gartner.com/resId=1413221.
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