Charles Smulders Editor in Chief, Hardware and Systems Lack of definitive signs of a U.S. economic recovery by the midpoint of 2002 has led Gartner Dataquest to revise its most likely IT market forecast downward for 2002 and 2003. Business confidence remains low and recent accounting scandals have further undermined confidence. Fiscal conservatism remains at the forefront of most companies. In light of these events, the previous most likely scenario of a fourth quarter of 2002 acceleration in IT spending as business confidence grew in response to better economic news has been revised downward to become the best-case scenario. The IT market appears to be bumping along the bottom of the downcycle. Early casualties of the IT downturn are beginning to show better year-over-year growth rates; however, these reflect poor market performances a year ago. Segments that have longer buying and implementation cycles, such as consulting and enterprise application software, have felt a significant demand slowdown in the first six months of 2002. The most likely scenario calls for definitive economic recovery signs at the end of 2002 and the beginning of the first quarter of 2003, followed by a second quarter of 2003 acceleration in U.S. IT spending. Other regions are expected to feel the impact of this acceleration three to six months after the U.S. upturn, although structural problems in Latin America and Japan mean they are unlikely to show significant positive signs until 2004. Charles Smulders   Recovery Delayed: 3Q02 IT Market Scenarios Update 30 August 2002 Charles Smulders  Gartner has updated its third quarter scenario and lowered IT market revenue growth (hardware, software, telecommunications and IT services) to 3.4 percent in 2002 due to delayed economic recovery. The update also includes the best, most likely and worst-case scenarios. Hardware and Systems Forecast Scenarios Update: 2002-2004 29 August 2002 Charles Smulders  The short-term outlook for the computer hardware and systems market has been downgraded. Economic conditions continue to be the major factor in determining final growth levels in this market. Software Forecast Scenarios Update: 2002-2004 30 August 2002 Roger Fulton  Gartner Dataquest lowered many software forecasts based on an expected slight recovery in demand around mid-2003, six months later than previously forecast. The sales outlook is for much smaller growth. 3Q02 Telecom and Networking Forecast Scenarios Update: 2002-2004 26 August 2002 Dean Eyers  Wm. L. Hahn  The short to midterm forecast for the telecom and networking equipment and services market has been revised in the face of negative market developments and economic conditions. The long-term forecast remains stable. 3Q02 IT Services Forecast Scenarios Update, 2001-2004 23 August 2002 Kathryn Hale  Gartner Dataquest recently reduced its IT services forecast. The market's recovery is expected to begin in 2003, and our most likely forecast scenario calls for stable recovery in 2004.