Gartner Says Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue On Pace for 27 Percent Growth in 2004
Detailed Outlook for the Industry to be Announced During Gartner Dataquest Semiconductor Industry Summit, September 13-14, at the Fairmont San Francisco
STAMFORD, Conn., August 24, 2004 — Worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to reach $226 billion in 2004, a 27.4 percent increase from 2003 revenue, according to the latest quarterly update by Gartner, Inc.
While the market will experience strong growth this year, there are concerns among vendors about the industry outlook. At the end of the second quarter of 2004, semiconductor vendors and distributors reported a notable increase in inventory days on their balance sheets. This brought a wave of concerns about excess supply.
However, the Gartner Dataquest Semiconductor Inventory Index showed inventories in the supply chain at the low end of the "caution" zone. Had the increased inventory been accompanied by a flat or even falling semiconductor market, it would have been of grave concern. In a rising market, increasing inventory levels are normal.
"Despite the improving market conditions that semiconductor vendors have enjoyed over the past several quarters and the expectation that revenue growth this year will be close to 30 percent, this industry upcycle is notable in that few in the industry have felt able to acknowledge it as a boom," said Richard Gordon, research vice president for Gartner."
"The hangover from the severe market downturn endured in 2001 still lingers, just as concerns about the next downturn have begun to worry semiconductor industry executives," Gordon said. "The classic signs of an approaching peak in the market — such as increased channel inventory, increased capital spending forecasts, reducing device pricing and lead times — which, in the past would have been treated lightly at this stage in the cycle, are causing executives to be nervous."
Gartner analysts will provide detailed analysis on the on the outlook for the industry during the Gartner Dataquest Semiconductor Industry Summit, September 13-14 at the Fairmont San Francisco. The Summit will highlight new Gartner Dataquest forecasts for the next phase of the semiconductor industry. Presentations will be based on the very latest research that comes at a critical time in the semiconductor market cycle. A host of Gartner Dataquest analysts will deliver these latest forecast details in a wide range of presentations covering every aspect of semiconductor technology, market trends and the outlook for the industry.
Gartner Dataquest Semiconductor Industry Summit has attracted high-level attendees from across the semiconductor industry — including executives from chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, design firms, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and government — as well as institutional investors. Through exclusive Gartner Dataquest research and company presentations, the Summit will identify how the industry participants can position themselves to respond to the opportunities and challenges in established and emerging technologies.
Additional information about this Summit is available on Gartner's Web site at www.gartner.com/us/semicon. Members of the media can register by contacting Tom McCall at tom.mccall@gartner.com.
About Gartner:
Gartner, Inc. is the leading provider of
research and analysis on the global information technology industry. Gartner serves more
than 10,000 clients, including chief information officers and other senior IT executives
in corporations and government agencies, as well as technology companies and the
investment community. The Company focuses on delivering objective, in-depth analysis
and actionable advice to enable clients to make more informed business and technology
decisions. The Company's businesses consist of Gartner Intelligence, research and
events for IT professionals; Gartner Executive Programs, membership programs and peer
networking services; and Gartner Consulting, customized engagements with a specific
emphasis on outsourcing and IT management. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in
Stamford, Connecticut, and has 3,700 associates, including more than 1,000 research
analysts and consultants, in more than 75 locations worldwide. For more information,
visit www.gartner.com.
