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Overview Revenue in the semiconductor industry will grow well through 2005, but the next cyclical downturn will start in 2006. Most types of computer equipment will see weak revenue growth at best, though PCs will do better.  Read More 1Q04 Economic Scenarios: Global Recovery Still on Track The U.S. economy is on a solid, even if somewhat suspect, recovery path. Better yet, much of the global economy is following suit. 1Q04 PC Forecast Scenario Update: Raised Expectations Strong PC market growth outside the United States, coupled with an improving economy, has caused us to boost our near-term PC market forecast. 1Q04 Update: Global Server Forecast Scenarios, 2003-2005 2003 ended with a return to server market revenue growth (albeit at low levels), setting the stage for a low-single-digit growth trend through 2005. 1Q04 Update: PDA Forecast Scenarios, 2004-2005 Worldwide PDA shipments have declined for nine consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. We predict this sequence will end in the second quarter of 2004, but we still predict 2004 PDA shipments to decline 0.7 percent. Digital Document Devices: Worldwide, 2002-2005 (1Q04 Update) Users spent $16.5 billion on printers, copiers, fax machines and all-in-ones in 4Q03. The after-sales market will be even more important in 2004, as hardware prices fall and full-year spending drops below $58 billion. 1Q04 Update: Global HDD Forecast, 2002-2005 The drive makers set new shipment records and managed an impressive revenue increase in 2003. 1Q04 Update: RAID Disk Storage Forecast Scenarios, 2004-2006 Technology advancements, storage consolidation initiatives and aggressive vendor pricing practices, coupled with uneven global economies, restrict overall disk storage revenue to low single-digit growth. 1Q04 Update: Global Semiconductor Forecast Scenarios Semiconductor sales grew by 14 percent to $177 billion in 2003. Tighter capacity and continued demand-side strength will stabilize pricing in 2004, driving a forecast growth rate of 23 percent. Consumer Electronics Semiconductors, 2002-2005 (1Q04 Update) Global revenue from semiconductors used in consumer electronics will increase by 20 percent in 2004, to reach $34.1 billion. Unit sales will grow and average prices will rise as demand outstrips supply. DRAM Forecast Outlook, 1Q04: From Boom to Bust Vendors of dynamic random-access memory will enjoy a strong 2004, as revenue grows by 44 percent. But oversupply will sour the following 12 months, and intense competition looks likely to make for a grim 2006. 1Q04 Update: Semiconductor Capital and Equipment Spending A lack of business confidence impacted 2003 capital and equipment spending, but the market is changing. Several scenarios are possible for the industry's recovery. 1Q04 Update: Wired Communications Semiconductor Forecast, 2003-2005 Wired communications semiconductor market revenue grew about 9 percent in 2003. Market strength will continue; 18 percent growth is projected for 2004. 2005 overall market growth is revised to 13.4 percent. 1Q04 Global Forecast: EDA Growth on the Horizon The electronic design automation market is returning to growth in 2004, despite disappointing market performance in 2003. Investment in key design tools is already showing promise for the coming year. 1Q04 Update: Data Processing Semiconductor Forecast, 2003-2005 Financial releases by publicly traded suppliers reveal the market exceeded projections made in the fourth quarter of 2003. Positive market changes suggest continued improvements in the first quarter of 2004.