Silicon Supply Concerns Following Japan Disasters Will Continue Into 2012

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Summary

We do not expect the shortage of 300-millimeter silicon wafers to be too serious if Shin-Etsu's Shirakawa factory resumes production by early June, as long as other manufacturers can increase their production output by 10% immediately. Even so, supply shortage concerns will likely last until 1Q12.

Table of Contents

  • What You Need to Know
  • Event
    • Event Facts
    • Analysis
      • Damage to Fabs Causes Concern About Shortages of 300 mm Silicon Wafers
      • Future Power Outages Could Cause Further Problems
      • Maximizing Capacity Will Alleviate Shortages, but Lead Times Are Long
    • Gartner's Scenarios Show How Long 300 mm Supply Shortages Might Last
      • Scenario 1: Best Case
      • Scenario 2: Most Likely Case
      • Scenario 3: Worst Case
    • Long-Term Concerns Can't Be Ignored
  • Recommended Reading
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