| Benefit | Years to Mainstream Adoption | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less Than 2 Years | 2 to 5 Years | 5 to 10 Years | More Than 10 Years | |
Transformational | ||||
High | ||||
Moderate | ||||
Low | ||||
Phase | Definition |
Innovation Trigger | A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant media and industry interest. |
Peak of Inflated Expectations | During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the innovation is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and content publishers. |
Trough of Disillusionment | Because the innovation does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales. |
Slope of Enlightenment | Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the innovation’s applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process. |
Plateau of Productivity | The real-world benefits of the innovation are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. Growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the reduced level of risk; the rapid growth phase of adoption begins. Approximately 20% of the technology’s target audience has adopted, or is adopting, the technology as it enters this phase. |
Years to Mainstream Adoption | The time required for the innovation to reach the Plateau of Productivity. |
Benefit Rating | Definition |
Transformational | Enables new ways of doing business across industries that will result in major shifts in industry dynamics. |
High | Enables new ways of performing horizontal or vertical processes that will result in significantly increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise. |
Moderate | Provides incremental improvements to established processes that will result in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise. |
Low | Slightly improves processes (e.g., improved user experience) that will be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings. |
Maturity Levels | Status | Products/Vendors |
Embryonic | In labs | None |
Emerging | Commercialization by vendors Pilots and deployments by industry leaders | First generation High price Much customization |
Adolescent | Maturing technology capabilities and process understanding Uptake beyond early adopters | Second generation Less customization |
Early mainstream | Proven technology Vendors, technology and adoption rapidly evolving | Third generation More out-of-box methodologies |
Mature mainstream | Robust technology Not much evolution in vendors or technology | Several dominant vendors |
Legacy | Not appropriate for new developments Cost of migration constraints replacement | Maintenance revenue focus |
Obsolete | Rarely used | Used/resale market only |