Gartner Research

The Future of Unix: Hazy and Overcast, So Reach for the Umbrella

Published: 20 April 2012

ID: G00232079

Analyst(s): Philip Dawson , George J. Weiss , Andrew Butler

Summary

Purely monolithic Unix will decline as infrastructure architects migrate legacy applications such as ERP off Unix; one scenario shows the period of sharpest Unix decline beginning 2014 to 2015.

Table Of Contents
  • Impacts

Analysis

  • Impact: By 2017, 65% of applications running on proprietary versions of Unix in 2012 will have been migrated to x86 (primarily on Linux), making IT planning essential
  • Impact: ERP scale-out architectures on x86 platforms with Windows or Linux will rise from a 10% ratio in 2005 to 80% in 2017 for application and database management system (DBMS) online transaction processing (OLTP) workloads, making ERP/x86 standard
  • Impact: By 2020, the Unix market vendor share will comprise one predominant vendor, with about a 60% market share, and two others dividing the remaining share, incurring a potential procurement risk in a one-vendor market
  • Impact: Linux scalability and reliability will have surpassed Unix by 2017, but scale-out cluster and fabric architectures will remain the predominant Linux deployment style in 2017
  • Impact: The Unix decline will be steepest in the 2014 to 2015 period, when the heaviest migration from HP-Unix/Itanium is expected, and should be planned according to the circumstances at that time

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