Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: x86 Server Virtualization, Worldwide, 3Q12 Update

Published: 08 November 2012

ID: G00238945

Analyst(s): Jennifer Wu, Matthew Cheung


Virtualized x86 servers (excluding hosted virtual desktops) will grow from nearly 11% of total server shipments in 2011 to 18% in 2016, while servers running HVD workloads will grow from 1.8% in 2011 to 3.3% in 2016. HVD workload growth will outpace other workload growth due to increasing adoption.

Table Of Contents


  • Economic Assumptions
  • Technology Assumptions


  • Virtualized OS Instances Will Have a 24% CAGR, With Higher VM Density
  • HVD Workload Growth Will Outpace Other Workload Growth
  • Virtualized Server Shipment and VM Density
  • Virtual Server OS Instances Will Grow Faster in Emerging Markets

Market Model

  • Forecast Methodology
  • Forecast Components
    • Server Revenue Forecast
    • Server Unit Shipment Forecast
    • Server ASP Forecast
  • Factors
    • Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, Demographic, Lifestyle and Cultural
    • Technology Assumptions
    • Organic Growth
    • New Usage Types
    • Product Life Cycles
    • Replacement Demand
    • New Penetration Demand
    • Installed Base Estimates
    • Product Migration
    • Server Product Mix
    • Exchange Rates
  • Connections
    • Economic/Technology Assumptions > Product Life Cycles > Installed Base > Replacement Demand
    • Economic/Technology Assumptions > Organic Growth/New Usage Types > New Penetration Demand
    • Exchange Rates > Server ASPs
    • Replacement Demand/New Penetration Demand > Server Shipment Forecast
    • Product Migration/New Penetration Demand > Server Product Mix

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