Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: DRAM, Worldwide, 2011-2016, 4Q12 Update

Published: 04 January 2013

ID: G00228082

Analyst(s): Andrew Norwood

Summary

Conditions will remain tough in 4Q12 and 1Q13 due to oversupply and low pricing. However, 2Q13 should see improvement as low supply growth moves the market back into undersupply, which will last for the remainder of 2013 and through 2014 before a capacity-induced downturn in 2015.

Table Of Contents

Assumptions

  • DRAM Demand
    • Compute Data Processing Categorization
    • PCs
    • Media Tablets
    • Mobile Phones
  • DRAM Supply
    • Vendor Market Share and Profitability
    • NAND Market Conditions
    • Capital Spending and Equipment Lead Times
    • DRAM Road Map
    • DRAM Cost Structure
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation
  • DRAM Supply and Demand Sufficiency Assumptions

Analysis

  • Changes From the August 2012 Forecast Update
  • Forecast Analysis

Market Model

  • Forecast Components
    • DRAM Unit and Bit Forecast
    • DRAM ASP Forecast
    • DRAM Revenue Forecast
  • Demand-Side Influencing Factors
    • Electronic Equipment Production
    • Competing Memory and Storage Technologies
    • Channel Demand and End-Market Demand
    • Enterprise Budgets and Spending
    • Consumer Spending
    • Business Performance, Strategies and Objectives
    • Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, Demographic, Lifestyle and Cultural Factors
  • Supply-Side Influencing Factors
    • Capital Spending
    • Fab Equipment Lead Times
    • Manufacturing Technology and Capacity
    • DRAM Road Map
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation
    • Vendor Profitability
    • DRAM Cost Structure
    • NAND Market Conditions
  • Sufficiency Influencing Factors
    • DRAM Supply
    • DRAM Demand
    • DRAM Inventory
    • DRAM Sufficiency
  • Demand-Side Connections
    • End-Market Demand > EEP: Unit Production
    • EEP: DRAM Content < > EEP: Bill of Materials < DRAM ASP Forecast
    • EEP: DRAM Content < > Competing Memory and Storage Technologies
    • EEP: DRAM Content Multiplied by EEP: Unit Production > DRAM Demand
  • Supply-Side Connections
    • DRAM Cost Structure, DRAM ASP Forecast > Vendor Profitability
    • Vendor Profitability > Capital Spending
    • Capital Spending > Fab Equipment Lead Times > Manufacturing Technology and Capacity
    • Manufacturing Technology and Capacity > DRAM Road Map
    • DRAM Road Map, Manufacturing Technology and Capacity > DRAM Cost Structure
    • Vendor Profitability > DRAM Road Maps
    • Vendor Profitability, DRAM Road Map, NAND Market Conditions > Capacity Utilization and Allocation
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation > DRAM Supply
    • DRAM Cost Structure > DRAM ASP Forecast
  • Sufficiency Connections
    • DRAM Supply, DRAM Demand > DRAM Sufficiency
    • DRAM Sufficiency > DRAM Inventory
    • DRAM Inventory > DRAM Supply
    • DRAM Sufficiency > DRAM Unit and Bit Forecast, DRAM ASP Forecast

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