Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Hard-Disk Drives, Worldwide, 3Q13 Update

Published: 21 October 2013

ID: G00251042

Analyst(s): John Monroe

Summary

Demand in PC markets was unexpectedly soft from 2Q12 through 4Q12 and remained tepid during 1H13, but we believe the fundamentals for storage expansion remain sound. Our estimated HDD unit CAGR for 2012 through 2017 is 1.8%. Growth in petabytes shipped remains at more than 34% CAGR.

Table Of Contents

Analysis

  • Recent History
  • Current Conditions
    • A Coming Crisis in Production Capacity?
    • Enduring and Profitable Market Conditions
  • 2Q13 and 3Q13 Forecast Comparisons

Assumptions

  • General HDD Market Assumptions
  • Technology Transitions
  • Market Segmentation
  • Evolving PC and Non-PC Demand for 1.8-Inch and 2.5-Inch Mobile HDDs
    • NAND-Flash-Based PC-Grade SSDs in Mobile PCs and Media Tablets
    • Solid-State Hard Drives
  • Evolving PC and Non-PC Demand for 3.5-Inch PC-Grade and Consumer-Grade HDDs
  • Evolving Server and Storage System Demand for 3.5-Inch and 2.5-Inch SFF Business-Critical (Capacity-Optimized) Enterprise HDDs
  • Evolving Demand for 2.5-Inch/SFF and 3.5-Inch Mission-Critical (Performance-Optimized) Enterprise HDDs
    • NAND-Flash-Based Enterprise-Grade SSDs in Multiuser Markets
  • Regional Shipments

Market Model

  • Forecast Components
    • HDD Unit Shipments
  • HDD Average Selling Price
  • Influencing Factors
    • Global Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, Demographic, Lifestyle and Cultural Factors
    • Mobile and Desk-Based PC Shipments
    • Enterprise Server and Storage System Shipments
    • Upgrade, Replacement and Retail HDD Shipments
    • Evolving PC and Enterprise Demand
    • HDD Shipments to Emerging Non-PC Markets
    • Evolving Non-PC Demand
    • HDD Vendor Build Plans
    • HDD Inventory Levels
    • HDD Factory Utilization
    • Cost Reductions
    • Technology Transitions
    • R&D and Capex
    • HDD Vendor Financial Results
  • Connections

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