Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: NAND, Worldwide, 3Q13 Update

Published: 31 October 2013

ID: G00246631

Analyst(s): Joseph Unsworth

Summary

Greater seasonal demand is helping to offset modest supply gains during the second half of 2013. Macroeconomic uncertainty and curious smartphone demand are being offset by demand for solid-state drives, enabling a respectable outlook for 2014.

Table Of Contents

Analysis

  • Forecast Analysis
    • Changes From June 2013 Forecast Update

Assumptions

  • NAND Demand
    • Flash Cards and USB Flash Drives
    • Solid-State Drives
    • Media Tablets
    • Mobile Phones
  • NAND Supply
    • Vendor Profitability
    • DRAM Market Conditions
    • Capital Spending and Equipment Lead Times
    • NAND Road Map
    • NAND Cost Structure
  • NAND Supply-and-Demand Sufficiency Assumptions

Market Model

  • Forecast Components
    • NAND Unit and Bit Forecast
    • NAND ASP Forecast
    • NAND Revenue Forecast
  • Demand-Side Influencing Factors
    • Electronic Equipment Production
    • Competing Memory and Storage Technologies
  • Supply-Side Influencing Factors
    • Capital Spending
    • Fab Equipment Lead Times
    • Manufacturing Technology and Capacity
    • NAND Road Map
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation
    • Vendor Profitability
    • NAND Cost Structure
    • DRAM Market Conditions
  • Sufficiency Influencing Factors
    • NAND Supply
    • NAND Demand
    • NAND Inventory
    • NAND Sufficiency
  • Demand-Side Connections
    • End-Market Demand > EEP: Unit Production
    • EEP: NAND Content < > EEP: Bill of Materials < NAND ASP Forecast
    • EEP: NAND Content < > Competing Memory and Storage Technologies
    • EEP: NAND Content X EEP: Unit Production > NAND Demand
  • Supply-Side Connections
    • NAND Cost Structure, NAND ASP Forecast > Vendor Profitability
    • Vendor Profitability > Capital Spending
    • Capital Spending > Fab Equipment Lead Times > Manufacturing Technology and Capacity
    • Manufacturing Technology and Capacity > NAND Road Map
    • NAND Road Map; Manufacturing Technology and Capacity > NAND Cost Structure
    • Vendor Profitability > NAND Road Maps
    • Vendor Profitability; NAND Road Map; DRAM Market Conditions > Capacity Utilization and Allocation
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation > NAND Supply
    • NAND Cost Structure > NAND ASP Forecast
  • Sufficiency Connections
    • NAND Supply; NAND Demand > NAND Sufficiency
    • NAND Sufficiency > NAND Inventory
    • NAND Inventory > NAND Supply
    • NAND Sufficiency > NAND Unit and Bit Forecast; NAND ASP Forecast

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