Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Cellular Modems, Worldwide, 2013 Update

Published: 26 November 2013

ID: G00251387

Analyst(s): Hugues J. De La Vergne

Summary

Cellular modem sales will grow from 236 million units in 2013 to over 438 million units by 2017. Tablets, along with newer segments, such as the connected car and the connected home, will drive volume.

Table Of Contents

Analysis

  • Communications Service Provider Hardware Subsidies and Lower Multidevice Data Rate Plans Will Overcome Short-Term Headwinds for Expansion of Cellular-Enabled Devices
  • Definitions

Assumptions

  • Tablets, Emerging Categories and Less-Expensive Rate Plans Will Drive the Cellular Modem Market
    • Cellular-Enabled Cars Will Expand Quickly With U.S. Sales Reaching 20% to 25% of Total Auto Sales by 2017
    • Cellular-Enabled Tablets Grow From Under 30% of Total Tablet Sales to Over 40% by 2017
    • Hardware Premium for Embedded Cellular Modems Will Decline to Below $20
    • Multidevice Data Plan Pricing Declines by 20% by 2017, Driving Emerging Connected-Device Sales
    • Expansion of Cellular-Enabled Homes Is Limited Due to Less Expensive Wireless Technologies

Market Model

  • Forecast Components
    • Unit Sales to End Users
  • Influencing Factors
    • Subsidy
    • Usage Model
    • Replacement Cycle
    • Bill of Materials
    • Technology
  • Connections
    • Connection > SIM Only > Net New Connections > Cellular > Modules
    • Lost/Damaged > Subsidy > Churn > Replacement Sales
    • Hardware Life Span > User Life Expectancy > Retirements

Gartner Recommended Reading

©2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner’s prior written permission. It consists of the opinions of Gartner’s research organization, which should not be construed as statements of fact. While the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner research may address legal and financial issues, Gartner does not provide legal or investment advice and its research should not be construed or used as such. Your access and use of this publication are governed by Gartner’s Usage Policy. Gartner prides itself on its reputation for independence and objectivity. Its research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from any third party. For further information, see Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity.

Already have a Gartner Account?

Purchase this Document

To purchase this document, you will need to register or sign in above

Become a client

Learn how to access this content as a Gartner client.