Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Cellular Modems, Worldwide, 2013 Update

Published: 26 November 2013

ID: G00251387

Analyst(s): Hugues J. De La Vergne


Cellular modem sales will grow from 236 million units in 2013 to over 438 million units by 2017. Tablets, along with newer segments, such as the connected car and the connected home, will drive volume.

Table Of Contents


  • Communications Service Provider Hardware Subsidies and Lower Multidevice Data Rate Plans Will Overcome Short-Term Headwinds for Expansion of Cellular-Enabled Devices
  • Definitions


  • Tablets, Emerging Categories and Less-Expensive Rate Plans Will Drive the Cellular Modem Market
    • Cellular-Enabled Cars Will Expand Quickly With U.S. Sales Reaching 20% to 25% of Total Auto Sales by 2017
    • Cellular-Enabled Tablets Grow From Under 30% of Total Tablet Sales to Over 40% by 2017
    • Hardware Premium for Embedded Cellular Modems Will Decline to Below $20
    • Multidevice Data Plan Pricing Declines by 20% by 2017, Driving Emerging Connected-Device Sales
    • Expansion of Cellular-Enabled Homes Is Limited Due to Less Expensive Wireless Technologies

Market Model

  • Forecast Components
    • Unit Sales to End Users
  • Influencing Factors
    • Subsidy
    • Usage Model
    • Replacement Cycle
    • Bill of Materials
    • Technology
  • Connections
    • Connection > SIM Only > Net New Connections > Cellular > Modules
    • Lost/Damaged > Subsidy > Churn > Replacement Sales
    • Hardware Life Span > User Life Expectancy > Retirements

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