Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Semiconductor Silicon Wafers, Worldwide, 4Q13 Update

Published: 08 January 2014

ID: G00246089

Analyst(s): Takashi Ogawa

Summary

Silicon wafer demand in the fourth quarter of 2013 and in the first quarter of 2014 will continue through a downward adjustment phase, causing annual wafer demand in 2013 to show a meager 0.5% increase over the previous year.

Table Of Contents

Analysis

  • Forecast Overview
    • Key Changes in the 4Q13 Forecast
  • Forecast Commentary by Diameter
    • 300 mm Wafers
    • 200 mm Wafers
    • Small-Size Wafers
  • Silicon Forecast Scenarios
    • Alternative 1
    • Alternative 2

Assumptions

  • General Assumptions
    • Macroeconomy
    • Semiconductor Device Forecast
    • Capital Spending Forecast
    • Semiconductor Inventory
    • Fab Capacity
    • Fab Utilization Perspectives
  • Silicon Wafer Market
    • Wafer Area Demand Forecast
    • Test/Monitor Ratio
    • Wafer Inventory
    • Purchasing Momentum
  • Wafer Area Price Matrix
    • Wafer Vendors' Capacity/Capital Spending
    • Polysilicon Supply Condition
    • Supply-and-Demand Balance

Market Model

  • Forecast Components
    • Wafer Area Demand Forecast
    • Wafer Area Price Matrix
  • Influencing Factors
    • Macroeconomy
    • Semiconductor Device Forecast
    • Semiconductor Device Process Technologies
    • Capital Spending
    • Fab Capacity
    • Semiconductor Inventory
    • Semiconductor Device Manufacturing Demand
    • Fab Utilization Perspectives
    • Test/Monitor Ratio
    • Wafer Demand for Device Manufacturing
    • Wafer Inventory
    • Wafer Vendors' Capacity/Capital Spending
    • Polysilicon Supply Condition
    • Supply-and-Demand Balance
    • Purchasing Momentum
  • Connections
    • Semiconductor Device Forecast > Wafer Demand for Device Manufacturing
    • Semiconductor Manufacturing Demand > Fab Utilization Perspectives > Wafer Demand for Device Manufacturing
    • Capital Spending > Fab Capacity > Wafer Demand for Device Manufacturing
    • Wafer Vendors' Capacity/Capital Spending > Supply-and-Demand Balance > Wafer Area Price Matrix
    • Supply-and-Demand Balance and Wafer Inventory > Purchasing Momentum > Wafer Area Demand Forecast

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