Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: NAND, Worldwide, 4Q13 Update

Published: 30 January 2014

ID: G00246634

Analyst(s): Joseph Unsworth

Summary

The NAND market will witness a solid 2013; however, demand and pricing were weakening heading into 2014. A rapid transition to advanced NAND technologies in embedded and solid-state drives will be critical to not only enable lower sustainable pricing, but also stimulate demand.

Table Of Contents

Analysis

  • Forecast Analysis
    • Changes From October 2013 Forecast Update

Assumptions

  • NAND Demand
    • Flash Cards and USB Flash Drives
    • Solid-State Drives
    • Media Tablets
    • Mobile Phones
  • NAND Supply
    • Vendor Profitability
    • DRAM Market Conditions
    • Capital Spending and Equipment Lead Times
    • NAND Road Map
    • NAND Cost Structure
  • NAND Supply-and-Demand Sufficiency Assumptions

Market Model

  • Forecast Components
    • NAND Unit and Bit Forecast
    • NAND ASP Forecast
    • NAND Revenue Forecast
  • Demand-Side Influencing Factors
    • Electronic Equipment Production
    • Competing Memory and Storage Technologies
  • Supply-Side Influencing Factors
    • Capital Spending
    • Fab Equipment Lead Times
    • Manufacturing Technology and Capacity
    • NAND Road Map
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation
    • Vendor Profitability
    • NAND Cost Structure
    • DRAM Market Conditions
  • Sufficiency Influencing Factors
    • NAND Supply
    • NAND Demand
    • NAND Inventory
    • NAND Sufficiency
  • Demand-Side Connections
    • End-Market Demand > EEP: Unit Production
    • EEP: NAND Content < > EEP: Bill of Materials < NAND ASP Forecast
    • EEP: NAND Content < > Competing Memory and Storage Technologies
    • EEP: NAND Content X EEP: Unit Production > NAND Demand
  • Supply-Side Connections
    • NAND Cost Structure, NAND ASP Forecast > Vendor Profitability
    • Vendor Profitability > Capital Spending
    • Capital Spending > Fab Equipment Lead Times > Manufacturing Technology and Capacity
    • Manufacturing Technology and Capacity > NAND Road Map
    • NAND Road Map; Manufacturing Technology and Capacity > NAND Cost Structure
    • Vendor Profitability > NAND Road Maps
    • Vendor Profitability; NAND Road Map; DRAM Market Conditions > Capacity Utilization and Allocation
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation > NAND Supply
    • NAND Cost Structure > NAND ASP Forecast
  • Sufficiency Connections
    • NAND Supply; NAND Demand > NAND Sufficiency
    • NAND Sufficiency > NAND Inventory
    • NAND Inventory > NAND Supply
    • NAND Sufficiency > NAND Unit and Bit Forecast; NAND ASP Forecast

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