Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Enterprise Network Equipment, Worldwide, 4Q13 Update

Published: 14 February 2014

ID: G00261456

Analyst(s): Joe Skorupa , Christian Canales , Naresh Singh

Summary

The 4Q13 forecast has been raised by 0.4% CAGR from 2012 through 2017, as 2013 and 2014 are likely to be stronger than in prior iterations. However, overall and through the longer term, we continue to observe caution, as the slow recovering macroeconomic situation curtails broader market demand.

Table Of Contents

Analysis

  • Overall Forecast Analysis
    • Better-Than-Expected Vendor Revenue in 3Q14 Drives Upward Revision of Forecast
  • Segment Forecast Analysis
    • Enterprise Ethernet Switches: Strong Data Center Demand
    • Application Acceleration Equipment: Average Selling Price Under Pressure
    • Wireless LAN: 802.11ac Access Point End-User Spending Forecast Revised Up
    • Traditional Routers: Strong Adoption of Integrated Routers With Service Modules
    • Enterprise Network Security Equipment: Continued Market Transitions

Assumptions

  • Macroeconomic Factors
  • Addressable Market
  • Adoption Rate
    • Ethernet Switching
    • WLAN Equipment
    • Enterprise Routers
    • Network Security Equipment
    • Application Acceleration Equipment
  • Technology Life Cycle
  • Technology Transitions
    • Ethernet Switching
    • Network Security and Routers
    • WLAN
    • Application Acceleration Equipment

Market Model

  • Forecast Components
    • Unit/Port Shipments
    • Unit/Port ASP
    • Installed Base Forecast
    • Country Splits by Region
  • Influencing Factors
    • Addressable Market
    • Adoption Rate
    • Shipment History
    • Firm/Site Demographics
    • IT Penetration Assumptions
    • Device (PC, Server) Installed Base Forecasts
    • Life Cycle
    • Current-Year Estimates
    • Technology Transitions
    • GDP Forecasts
    • Cost Reduction Factor
    • ASP History
    • WAN Service Forecasts
  • Connections
    • Addressable Market > Installed Base Forecast and Adoption Rate > Installed Base Forecast
    • Life Cycle > Unit/Port Shipment Forecast
    • Current-Year Estimates > Unit/Port Shipment Forecast
    • GDP Impact > Unit/Port Shipment Forecast
  • Inputs to Country Splits by Region

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