Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Devices, Worldwide, 1Q15 Update

Published: 14 April 2015

ID: G00276442

Analyst(s): Lillian Tay, Roberta Cozza, Jason Chapman, William Lutman, Martin Reynolds, Tuong Nguyen, Ranjit Atwal, Bruno Lakehal, CK Lu, Annette Zimmermann, Tracy Tsai, Annette Jump

Summary

Overall growth in unit shipments of PCs, ultramobiles and mobile phones will slow to 2.8% in 2015. End-user spending will grow by 3.2% in constant-currency terms, but in current U.S. dollars it will decline for the first time since 2010, by 1%.

Table Of Contents
  • Overview
  • Companion Documents

Forecast Data

Market Impact

  • Overall Device Market Changes
  • PC Vendors Are Likely to Increase Prices
  • Changes to Products, Prices and Unit Demand
  • Lower-Cost Ultramobiles and Smartphones Resist Currency Pressure
  • The Need to Sustain Profits and Margins

Assumptions

  • Product Design and Pricing
    • Vendors of PCs and Ultramobiles to Raise Prices by an Average of 10% in 2015
    • User Experience of Chrome PCs Will Improve, Increasing Sub-$250 Competition Through 2016
    • Utility Smartphones Will Show a 30% Price Decline Through 2016
    • Windows 10 With Intel's Skylake Will Result in 10% Less Inventory in 1H15
  • Consumer Behavior
    • Only 5% of the €400 Saved, on Average, by European Households in 2015 Due to Lower Fuel Prices Will Be Spent on Devices
    • Through 2016, 30% of PC Consumers Will Buy Down the Price Curve
  • Business Behavior
    • Large Firms Will Cut Their Unit Purchases by 20% in 2015 Due to Price Rises
  • Device Preferences
    • Windows 10 Will Contribute to Slowing Demand for Notebook PCs and Premium Ultramobiles in 2015, but Help Replacements in 2016
    • Despite a 10% Rise in iOS Phone Prices in Countries Whose Local Currency Has Weakened Against the Dollar, iPhone Unit Shipments Will Grow by 7.4% in 2015
    • Through 2016, One in 10 Premium Phone Buyers in Emerging Markets Will Buy a Sub-$500 Premium Phone
    • "IT Austerity" Approaches in Brazil

Gartner Recommended Reading

©2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner’s prior written permission. It consists of the opinions of Gartner’s research organization, which should not be construed as statements of fact. While the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner research may address legal and financial issues, Gartner does not provide legal or investment advice and its research should not be construed or used as such. Your access and use of this publication are governed by Gartner’s Usage Policy. Gartner prides itself on its reputation for independence and objectivity. Its research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from any third party. For further information, see Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity.

Already have a Gartner Account?

Purchase this Document

To purchase this document, you will need to register or sign in above

Become a client

Learn how to access this content as a Gartner client.