Gartner Research

Use Scenario Planning to Maintain Business Relevance During Uncertain Oil and Gas Markets

Published: 13 October 2015

ID: G00279662

Analyst(s): Rich McAvey


Digital disruption and volatile oil and gas markets make it difficult for IT to stay relevant with current business priorities. By 2020, 30% of upstream CIOs will adopt scenario-planning methodology to guide digital innovation and future-proof their companies against market volatility.

Table Of Contents


  • "Scenario Planning" Defined
  • Scenario-Planning Justification
  • How to Think About Scenarios
  • How Oil and Gas CIOs Can Use Scenario Planning
  • Steps in Scenario-Based Planning
    • Step 1: Find a Focal Issue
    • Step 2: Find the Key Factors
    • Step 3: Identify Critical Uncertainties
    • Step 4: Develop Scenario Logic
    • Step 5: Establish Scenario Quadrants
    • Step 6: Implications and Options
    • Step 7: Leading Indicators and Signposts
  • Scenario Planning: Created by and for Upstream Oil and Gas

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