Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Communications Service Provider Operational Technology, Worldwide, 1Q16 Update

Published: 21 March 2016

ID: G00297369

Analyst(s): Akshay K. Sharma, Norbert Scholz, Jouni Forsman , Amresh Nandan , Michael Porowski , Peter Liu , Martina Kurth, Ian Keene, Kosei Takiishi , Sylvain Fabre

Summary

We forecast CSPs' total spending on network, software and services operational technology worldwide to reach $238 billion by 2020. Worldwide OT network investments are expected to grow at a 5.9% CAGR in constant dollars from 2015 through 2020.

Table Of Contents
  • Overview
  • Companion Documents

Forecast Data

  • Currency and Exchange Rates
  • Forecast Tables

Market Impact

  • CSP OT Network
    • Mobile Infrastructure — Macro Layer — LTE/4G, 3G, 2G
    • Small Cells
    • Fixed Access — Fiber, DSL, Other Broadband
    • Service Provider Routers and Switches, and Optical Transport
    • Other Network
  • CSP OT Software
    • CSP OT Infrastructure Software
    • CSP OT Application Software
  • CSP OT Services
    • CSP OT Network Infrastructure Services
    • CSP OT Software Services
  • SDN/NFV

Assumptions

  • Major Network Investment Projects in Western Europe Beginning to Wrap Up in 2017
  • Through 2018, the Completion of Japanese LTE Deployment Will Lead to Reduced Investment and Increased Focus on Improving User Experience
  • Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa Regions Continue to Grow Mobile Infrastructure
  • Indian CSPs Continue to Invest in 4G/LTE to Meet Increasing Mobile Data Demand as Expected, From 2016 Through 2018
  • Small Cell Growth Will Be Highest in Asia/Pacific From 2016 Through 2018
  • From 2016 Through 2020, FTTH Investment Growth in Japan Will Slow Compared to Previous Forecast due to Easing of National Broadband Projects
  • Investments in G.fast Forecast to Improve in Some Regions From 2016 Through 2018
  • Japanese WiMAX Provider Refarms Frequency for TD-LTE, as Investments Ease After 2016
  • Following Expected FCC Approval in Mid-2016, U.S. CSPs Will Start to Phase Out Application Software That Supports Infrequently Used Services
  • In 2016, U.S. Incumbent CSPs Will Continue to Reduce the Use of Application Software That Supports Services Provided Over Copper Networks
  • Growth Maintained Despite Modest Flattening of SPRS Growth Trajectory as Average Prices Ease
  • Cost for Network-Planning Services to Rise as Strategy and Management Consulting Services Become More Complex

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