Gartner Research

Forecast Overview: Semiconductor Foundry Services, Worldwide, 2016

Published: 18 May 2016

ID: G00296552

Analyst(s): Samuel Wang

Summary

With no new killer applications in sight to trigger more wafer demand, the foundry market will have low-single-digit growth from 2015 through 2020. The few customers with significant purchasing power will become the prime targets of large foundries.

Table Of Contents
  • Overview
  • Companion Documents

Market Description

  • Increasing Role of Foundry in the Semiconductor Industry
  • Foundry Growth Has Been From Mobile Devices and IDM Conversion
  • ASICs and ASSPs as Chip Drivers of Foundry Growth
  • Foundry Wafer Pricing
  • Advanced Technologies Require Massive Investments in Foundry Fabs
  • Foundry Capacity Expansion on 300 mm Wafers
  • Concentrated Foundry Suppliers
  • Stratification of Market Into Three Tiers

Foundational Assumptions

  • Foundry Supply-and-Demand Balance by Technology
  • End-Market Demand
  • Demand Sufficiency
  • Supply Sufficiency
  • Foundry Pricing and Profitability
  • Foundry Capital Spending
  • Foundry Capacity by Technology
  • Technology Roadmap

Market Model or Methodology

  • Forecast Components
    • Foundry Shipment Forecast
    • Foundry Wafer ASP Forecast
    • Foundry Revenue Forecast
  • Demand-Side Influencing Factors
    • Macroeconomy
    • Consumer Spending
    • Enterprise Budgets and Spending
    • Business Strategies and Objectives
    • Channel Demand and End-Market Demand
    • Electronic Equipment Production
    • IDMs Become Fab Lite, Fabless or Vice Versa
    • IDM/Fabless Market Share Change
  • Supply-Side Influencing Factors
    • Foundry Capital Spending
    • Fab Equipment and IP Lead Times
    • Wafer Capacity by Technology
    • Technology Roadmap
    • Capacity Utilization
    • Foundry Profitability
    • Wafer Cost Structure
    • IDM Becomes New Foundry
    • More ASICs Designed by System Companies
  • Sufficiency Influencing Factors
    • Foundry Supply
    • Foundry Demand
    • Foundry Inventory
    • Foundry Sufficiency

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