Gartner Research

Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2016

Published: 19 July 2016

Summary

Our 2016 Hype Cycle reveals three distinct technology trends that profoundly create new experiences, with unrivaled intelligence, and offer platforms that propel organizations to connect with new business ecosystems in order to become competitive over the next five to 10 years.

Included in Full Research

  • What You Need to Know
  • The Hype Cycle
    • Emerging Technology Trends
    • Major Hype Cycle Changes
  • The Priority Matrix
  • Off the Hype Cycle
  • On the Rise
    • Smart Dust
    • 4D Printing
    • General-Purpose Machine Intelligence
    • 802.11ax
    • Context Brokering
    • Neuromorphic Hardware
    • Data Broker PaaS (dbrPaaS)
    • Quantum Computing
    • Human Augmentation
    • Personal Analytics
    • Smart Workspace
    • Volumetric Displays
    • Conversational User Interfaces
    • Brain-Computer Interface
    • Virtual Personal Assistants
    • Smart Data Discovery
    • Affective Computing
    • Commercial UAVs (Drones)
    • IoT Platform
  • At the Peak
    • Gesture Control Devices
    • Micro Data Centers
    • Smart Robots
    • Blockchain
    • Connected Home
    • Cognitive Expert Advisors
    • Machine Learning
    • Software-Defined Security
    • Autonomous Vehicles
    • Nanotube Electronics
    • Software-Defined Anything (SDx)
  • Sliding Into the Trough
    • Natural-Language Question Answering
    • Enterprise Taxonomy and Ontology Management
    • Augmented Reality
  • Climbing the Slope
    • Virtual Reality
  • Appendixes
    • Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels

Analysts:

Mike Walker Betsy Burton Michele Cantara

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The Hype Cycle: Understanding the pitfalls and opportunities of innovations

How does a Gartner Hype Cycle™ work?

A Gartner Hype Cycle provides an objective map that helps you understand the real risks and opportunities of innovation, so you can avoid adopting something too early, giving up too soon, adopting too late, or hanging on too long. Every Hype Cycle includes five phases:

The innovation trigger starts when an event, like a technological breakthrough or a product launch, gets people talking.

The peak of inflated expectations is when product usage increases, but there’s still more hype than proof that the innovation can deliver what you need.

The trough of disillusionment happens when the original excitement wears off and early adopters report performance issues and low ROI.

The slope of enlightenment occurs when early adopters see initial benefits and others start to understand how to adapt the innovation to their organizations.

The plateau of productivity marks the point at which more users see real-world benefits and the innovation goes mainstream.

The Hype Cycle is more than just a diagram. You also get:

Evidence-backed insight

Hype Cycles tap into deep research, surveys and conversations with technology suppliers and Gartner clients.

An analysis of objective and value

The y-axis measures expectations. The x-axis relates them to the proven value of that innovation over time.

A long-term view

It often takes between three and five years for an innovation to move through the Hype Cycle, but some fall off along the way.

Gartner Hype Cycle is just one of our many offerings.

We provide actionable, objective insight to help organizations make smarter, faster technology decisions to stay ahead of disruption and accelerate growth.

Pick the right provider with confidence

We work with you to select the best-fit provider to avoid the costly repercussions of a poor decision.

Align deal structures and optimize spend

We benchmark pricing against the market so you avoid unnecessary charges.

Reduce complexity and risk

We analyze contract terms and conditions to protect you against future price increases and unanticipated costs.

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