Gartner Research

Forecast Overview: NAND Flash, Worldwide, 2017

Published: 14 June 2017

ID: G00321668

Analyst(s): Joseph Unsworth


The NAND industry is experiencing a changing competitive landscape amid its biggest technology transition to 3D NAND flash. Technology strategic planners should expect periods of oversupply and shortages to remain, as vendors ramp up production to meet demand and pursue greater margin opportunities.

Table Of Contents
  • Overview
  • Companion Documents

Market Description

  • Industry Cycles to Remain for Now, but They Will Be Less Pronounced

Foundational Assumptions

  • NAND Supply-and-Demand Sufficiency
  • NAND Cost Structure
  • NAND Demand
  • NAND Roadmap and Supply

Market Model or Methodology

  • Forecast Components
    • NAND Unit and Bit Forecast
    • NAND ASP Forecast
    • NAND Revenue Forecast
  • Demand-Side Influencing Factors
    • Electronic Equipment Production
    • Competing Memory and Storage Technologies
  • Supply-Side Influencing Factors
    • Capital Spending
    • Fab Equipment Lead Times
    • Manufacturing Technology and Capacity
    • NAND Roadmap
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation
    • Vendor Profitability
    • NAND Cost Structure
    • DRAM Market Conditions
  • Sufficiency Influencing Factors
    • NAND Supply
    • NAND Demand
    • NAND Inventory
    • NAND Sufficiency
  • Demand-Side Connections
    • End-Market Demand > EEP: Unit Production
    • EEP: NAND Content < > EEP: Bill of Materials < NAND ASP Forecast
    • EEP: NAND Content < > Competing Memory and Storage Technologies
    • EEP: NAND Content X EEP: Unit Production > NAND Demand
  • Supply-Side Connections
    • NAND Cost Structure, NAND ASP Forecast > Vendor Profitability
    • Vendor Profitability > Capital Spending
    • Capital Spending > Fab Equipment Lead Times > Manufacturing Technology and Capacity
    • Manufacturing Technology and Capacity > NAND Roadmap
    • NAND Roadmap; Manufacturing Technology and Capacity > NAND Cost Structure
    • Vendor Profitability > NAND Roadmaps
    • Vendor Profitability; NAND Roadmap; DRAM Market Conditions > Capacity Utilization and Allocation
    • Capacity Utilization and Allocation > NAND Supply
    • NAND Cost Structure > NAND ASP Forecast
  • Sufficiency Connections
    • NAND Supply; NAND Demand > NAND Sufficiency
    • NAND Sufficiency > NAND Inventory
    • NAND Inventory > NAND Supply
    • NAND Sufficiency > NAND Unit and Bit Forecast; NAND ASP Forecast

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