Gartner Research

Market Insight: A Practical Way to Predict a Serious Down Cycle in Semiconductor Capital Spending

Published: 20 September 2017

ID: G00338396

Analyst(s): Takashi Ogawa, Bob Johnson


A down cycle with an overestimation of semiconductor demand and capital spending will bring serious business damage. Technology strategic planners at semiconductor vendors must evaluate the potential risk for the next down cycle to minimize business damage.

Table Of Contents


  • Model Framework
    • Demand-Side Factors
    • Supply-Side Factors
    • Matching Conditions
  • Influential Factor Score

Background and Context

The Impact

  • High Total Influential Factor Score Indicates a High Potential Risk to Cause a Serious Down Cycle
  • Appropriate Assumptions for Influential Factor Scores Enable Prediction of a Serious Down Cycle in the Future


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