Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Electronics and Semiconductors, Worldwide

Published: 22 April 2019

ID: G00384615

Analyst(s): Joseph Unsworth, Roger Sheng, Jon Erensen, Andrew Norwood, Bill Ray, Anushree Verma, Ben Lee

Summary

Semiconductor revenue is expected to decline 3.4% in 2019, down from a 2.6% increase in the previous update. Downward revision since 4Q18 confirmed a downturn risk. Semiconductor vendors must review production and capital spending plans to protect themselves from a weaker market in coming quarters.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: DRAM Pricing Dynamics
  • Influencing Factor: NAND Supply and Demand
  • Influencing Factor: 5G Endpoints Will Be Extremely Expensive
  • Influencing Factor: Smartphones End Demand Market
  • Influencing Factor: Smart Speakers End Demand Market
  • Forecast Assumption: DRAM Price Will Decline Dramatically in 2H21
  • Forecast Assumption: NAND Sufficiency Will Be in Undersupply by 4Q19
  • Forecast Assumption: 5G Market Will Emerge in 2019
  • Forecast Assumption: Smartphone Market Will Decelerate
  • Forecast Assumption: Smart Speaker Market Will Grow Fast

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