Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Servers, Worldwide

Published: 30 April 2019

ID: G00383658

Analyst(s): Wataru Katsurashima, Uko Tian, Jeffrey Hewitt, Naveen Mishra, Adrian O'Connell, Kiyomi Yamada

Summary

Server market spending is expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 0.6% through 2023, while shipments will grow at a five-year CAGR of 2% through 2023, reflecting DRAM price declines. Greater China and North America will continue to lead other regions with CAGRs of 2.7% and 1.4%, respectively.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

  • 2019 End Spending Will Be Down, but Long-Term Growth Will Continue

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Ecosystem — DRAM Oversupply in 2019
    • Forecast Assumption: DRAM pricing is expected to see large double-digit declines in 2019 before stabilizing in 4Q19.
  • Influencing Factor: Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Issues in China
    • Forecast Assumption: Through 2023, the Greater China server market will remain as the growth leader among all regions in terms of spending.
  • Influencing Factor: Competitive Environment — More CPU Choices
    • Forecast Assumption: By 2022, server providers will adopt more than two companies to source their processors.
  • Influencing Factor: Sourcing Option — Public Cloud Stack in On-Premises
    • Forecast Assumption: By 2022, more than 5% of on-premises computing will be based on public cloud technologies, from less than 1% now.

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