Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Physical Security Internet of Things Endpoint Electronics and Communications Revenue, Worldwide

Published: 23 May 2019

ID: G00389630

Analyst(s): Kay Sharpington


The physical security IoT endpoint electronics and communications market will be worth $100 billion in 2028, growing by $66 billion from 2018. The largest revenue opportunities will be in indoor surveillance and building intruder detection devices, with a 10-year CAGR of 12% and 13%, respectively.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Safety and Security Concerns Are Priorities for Businesses
    • Forecast Assumption: In the U.S., there will be one indoor surveillance camera per five employees by 2028, up from one per eight in 2018, while China’s “surveillance state” initiative will increase cameras to one per employee.
    • Forecast Assumption: Demand for increased security will mean security systems will have 31 IoT devices installed per control panel worldwide by 2028, up from 11 in 2018.
  • Influencing Factor: LPWA Technologies Will Drive Connected In-Building Devices
    • Forecast Assumption: Inexpensive LPWA connections will increase smoke/CO/heat detector functionality; consequently, 44% of endpoints will ship with an LPWA interface globally in 2028, up from 8% in 2018.
    • Forecast Assumption: In full U.S. deployments of commercial asset tracking, LPWA technologies will increase active tags from one per 15 commercial employees in 2018 to one per nine by 2028 to increase efficiency.
  • Influencing Factor: Regulations Will Ensure Device Demand
    • Forecast Assumption: Smoke/CO/heat detectors will be installed every 46 m 2 in U.S. buildings through 2028 to comply with regulations.

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