Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Semiconductor Capital Spending and Manufacturing Equipment, Worldwide

Published: 18 July 2019

ID: G00383918

Analyst(s): Gaurav Gupta , Bob Johnson

Summary

As memory prices and revenue continue to fall, memory manufacturers are pulling back on investments. In addition, as logic producers and major foundries reduce their spending from record levels in prior years, capex is expected to drop by 18.9% in 2019 and 2.4% in 2020 to reach $81.7 billion.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Logic Market Demand
    • Forecast Assumption: High chip inventory and uncertainty around U.S.-China trade issues will negatively impact foundry growth in 2H19, causing foundry revenue to decline by 1.74% for 2019.
  • Influencing Factor: Memory Market Dynamics
    • Forecast Assumption: NAND flash was in oversupply by 3.9% in 1Q19 but will moderate to a shallow undersupply of 1.0% in 4Q19 due to supply cuts and recovery in demand.

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