Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide

Published: 25 July 2019

ID: G00386832

Analyst(s): Tracy Tsai , Mikako Kitagawa , Annette Zimmermann , Ranjit Atwal , Roberta Cozza , Bruno Lakehal , Tuong Nguyen , Annette Jump , CK Lu

Summary

The device market will reach 2.13 billion units by 2023, shrinking at a 0.9% CAGR. In the short term, the professional PC market will see an uptick driven by upgrades to Windows 10, while mobile phone growth will slow as consumers extend lifetimes due to inadequate value of current new technology.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Phone Lifetimes
    • Forecast Assumption: Through 2023, the lifetime of premium phones will increase, on average, from 2.6 years to nearly 2.9 years.
  • Influencing Factor: Phone Technology Roadmaps
    • Forecast Assumption: The share of 5G-capable phones will reach 51% by 2023.
  • Influencing Factor: Replacements of PCs
    • Forecast Assumption: Seventy-five percent of the business-installed base will have migrated to Windows 10 by the beginning of 2021.

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