Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide

Published: 25 July 2019

ID: G00386832

Analyst(s): Tracy Tsai , Mikako Kitagawa , Annette Zimmermann , Ranjit Atwal , Roberta Cozza , Bruno Lakehal , Tuong Nguyen , Annette Jump , CK Lu


The device market will reach 2.13 billion units by 2023, shrinking at a 0.9% CAGR. In the short term, the professional PC market will see an uptick driven by upgrades to Windows 10, while mobile phone growth will slow as consumers extend lifetimes due to inadequate value of current new technology.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Phone Lifetimes
    • Forecast Assumption: Through 2023, the lifetime of premium phones will increase, on average, from 2.6 years to nearly 2.9 years.
  • Influencing Factor: Phone Technology Roadmaps
    • Forecast Assumption: The share of 5G-capable phones will reach 51% by 2023.
  • Influencing Factor: Replacements of PCs
    • Forecast Assumption: Seventy-five percent of the business-installed base will have migrated to Windows 10 by the beginning of 2021.

Gartner Recommended Reading

©2021 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form without Gartner’s prior written permission. It consists of the opinions of Gartner’s research organization, which should not be construed as statements of fact. While the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner research may address legal and financial issues, Gartner does not provide legal or investment advice and its research should not be construed or used as such. Your access and use of this publication are governed by Gartner’s Usage Policy. Gartner prides itself on its reputation for independence and objectivity. Its research is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from any third party. For further information, see Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity.

Already have a Gartner Account?

Purchase this Document

To purchase this document, you will need to register or sign in above

Become a client

Learn how to access this content as a Gartner client.