Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: NAND Flash, Worldwide

Published: 30 July 2019

ID: G00388231

Analyst(s): Joseph Unsworth

Summary

Inventory levels and tepid first-half demand are expected to fuel severe price declines of 44.3%, driving NAND flash revenue lower by 24.3% in 2019. Supply reductions and demand will fuel a recovery that persists through 2020 and into the first half of 2021, driving revenue growth.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, Demographic Factors
    • Forecast Assumptions: The current U.S.-China trade dispute will be resolved by year-end, and a deal will be agreed upon that allows the resumption of normal trade relations and sales to Huawei.
  • Influencing Factor: NAND Supply-and-Demand Sufficiency
    • Forecast Assumption: NAND flash was in oversupply by 7.3% in 1Q19, but it will moderate to a shallow undersupply of 0.6% in 4Q19 due to supply cuts and recovery in demand.
  • Influencing Factor: SSD Unit Production
    • Forecast Assumption: Overall 2019 SSD attach rates in PCs were forecast to increase to 58.7%, thanks to prices falling 51.0% on a dollar-per-gigabyte basis compared with 2018.
    • Forecast Assumption: Due to subdued spending with hyperscale customers and maturing average capacities in storage arrays, 2019 bit growth in enterprise storage SSDs was revised lower to 32.6%.
  • Influencing Factor: NAND Pricing Dynamics
    • Forecast Assumption: NAND price declines in certain product segments have breached 10% of fully burdened manufacturing costs and may not reach sustainable levels until 2020.

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