Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Autonomous Vehicle Net Additions, Internet of Things, Worldwide

Published: 30 September 2019

ID: G00388952

Analyst(s): Michael Ramsey , Matt Arnott , Jonathan Davenport

Summary

Net additions of autonomous vehicles capable of operating without human supervision (SAE Level 3 and above) will increase at a CAGR of 34% to reach 2.5 million units by 2028. Growth will come from North America, Greater China and Western Europe once technological and regulatory hurdles are overcome.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Regulation
    • Forecast Assumption: By 2028, one-fifth of the world’s countries will have active regulations that allow production-ready autonomous vehicles to operate legally, up from zero in 2019.
  • Influencing Factor: Sensor Hardware Costs
    • Forecast Assumption: By 2026, sensor costs to deliver Level 3 and above autonomous driving functionality will be approximately 25% lower than they will be in 2020.
  • Influencing Factor: Trusted Perception Algorithm Functionality
    • Forecast Assumption: By 2025, for mainstream use cases, autonomous vehicle perception algorithms will be proven to be an order of magnitude better than human drivers, up from their current position of being less capable than human drivers.

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