Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Servers, Worldwide

Published: 07 October 2019

ID: G00383660

Analyst(s): Adrian O'Connell , Uko Tian , Kiyomi Yamada , Wataru Katsurashima , Naveen Mishra

Summary

In this update, server market spending has been slightly reduced through 2023, reflecting a five-year CAGR of 0.5%, while shipments will grow at a five-year CAGR of 1.9%. The Chinese server market will decelerate because of U.S. trade issues, causing weaker domestic demand due to the uncertainty.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

  • Market Decline in 2019, Followed by Modest Recovery in 2020
  • Server ASPs Are Declining but at a Slower Pace

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Geopolitical Factors — Trade and Tariff Issues
    • Forecast Assumption: Indirect effects from trade issues will be bigger than direct impacts for the server market through 2020.
  • Influencing Factor: Geopolitical Factors — U.S. and China Trade Disputes
    • Forecast Assumption: By 2025, all top five Chinese server providers will adopt Chinese homegrown processors (from virtually zero in 2019).
  • Influencing Factor: Sourcing Option — DRAM Price Declines
    • Forecast Assumption: The DRAM market will be in an oversupply for the whole of 2019; the annual sufficiency will be 103.7%.

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