Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide

Published: 17 October 2019

ID: G00386833

Analyst(s): Roberta Cozza , Annette Zimmermann , Tracy Tsai , Bruno Lakehal , Tuong Nguyen , CK Lu , Mikako Kitagawa , Ranjit Atwal , Annette Jump

Summary

The devices market will reach 2.12 billion units by 2023, shrinking at a CAGR of over 1.0%. In the short term, the professional PC market will see a strong uptick, driven by Windows 10 upgrades, while mobile phones look to the connectivity of 5G technology to boost replacements in 2020 and beyond.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Economic Impacts
    • Forecast Assumption: Potential tariffs of over 25% on PCs coming from China to the U.S. and the U.K. will lead to inventory levels increasing by 5% through 2020.
  • Influencing Factor: Change in Pricing
    • Forecast Assumption: Premium phone ASPs will decline by 3% in 2019.
  • Influencing Factor: Phone Technology Roadmaps
    • Forecast Assumption: The share of 5G-capable phones will move from 10% in 2020 to 56% by 2023.
  • Influencing Factor: Replacements of PCs
    • Forecast Assumption: By the end of 2020, 5% of business PCs sold in China will come from an initiative to promote “Secure and Reliable” PCs with Chinese components and software.
    • Forecast Assumption: The collective increase in consumer PC (desk-based, notebook and ultramobile premium) lifetimes will result in 10 million fewer replacements through 2023.

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