Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Semiconductor Capital Spending and Manufacturing Equipment, Worldwide

Published: 03 January 2020

ID: G00387826

Analyst(s): Bob Johnson, Gaurav Gupta

Summary

After TSMC, Intel and Samsung revised their capital spending plans for 2019, capex will drop by 6.9% and 3.6%, respectively, in 2019 and 2020 to reach $92.5 billion. As the demand-supply dynamics for 3D NAND and DRAM continue to shift toward vendors, memory spending will revive in 2H20.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Logic Market Demand
    • Forecast Assumption: Strong demand for advanced logic technologies in 2H19 due to anticipated growth for 5G and an increased demand for 200 mm wafers will lead to a 0.9% revenue drop for foundries in 2019 to reach $62.3 billion.
  • Influencing Factor: Memory Market Dynamics
    • Forecast Assumption: NAND pricing began to recover toward the end of 2019 and is forecast to increase by 4.1% in 2020 as NAND goes into shortage by 2.2% for 2020.
    • Forecast Assumption: A projected recovery of DRAM demand in 2H20 will lead to an undersupply, pushing average selling prices to be down by just 8.0% in 2020.

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