Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: DRAM, Worldwide

Published: 06 January 2020

ID: G00383763

Analyst(s): Andrew Norwood

Summary

DRAM revenue is forecast to increase 13.3% in 2020 and a further 33.7% in 2021 as the market moves back into an undersupply that lasts through 2021 with revenue climbing to $94.5 billion in 2021. In 2022, a supply-induced downturn causes revenue to decline 12.7%.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: DRAM Supply-and-Demand Sufficiency
    • Forecast Assumption: The DRAM market will be in oversupply in 1Q20 and then move into an undersupply for the remainder of 2020 and 2021; the annual sufficiency will be 96.2% in 2020 and 96.3% in 2021.
    • Forecast Assumption: 2022 sees the market moving into a supply-driven oversupply that lasts into 2023 as new fabs ramp up to capacity.
  • Influencing Factor: DRAM Pricing Dynamics
    • Forecast Assumption: On an annual basis, server DRAM pricing will decline 4.8% in 2020 and increase 16% in 2021. Pricing will edge lower in 1Q20 before seeing a 43% increase between 1Q20 and 1Q21 as the market moves into an undersupply.
    • Forecast Assumption: On an annual basis, low-power DRAM pricing will decline 13.1% in 2020 and increase 8.3% in 2021. Pricing will edge lower in 1Q20 before seeing a 28% increase between 1Q20 and 1Q21 as the market moves into an undersupply.

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