Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Semiconductor Foundry Services, Worldwide

Published: 14 January 2020

ID: G00383481

Analyst(s): Samuel Wang

Summary

Wafer demand improved at year-end as customers started replenishing inventory in anticipation of 5G’s arrival. Foundry revenue in 2019 is estimated to decline by 0.9% from a year ago, but it will grow by 10.4% in 2020 to $68.8 billion.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: End-Market Demand
    • Forecast Assumption: A more optimistic 5G smartphone outlook will provide a $5 billion and $3 billion market opportunity on advanced nodes and legacy nodes, respectively, for foundries in 2023.
  • Influencing Factor: Demand-Supply Balance by Technology
    • Forecast Assumption: The 200 millimeter (mm) wafer demand, led by PMICs and other applications, will result in a high 90% utilization rate in the next few quarters at some Asian foundry 200 mm fabs.
  • Influencing Factor: Foundry Capital Spending
    • Forecast Assumption: Foundry 2019 and 2020 capital expenditure (capex) will reach $24.1 billion and $23.9 billion, respectively, due to the rising wafer demand of advanced nodes.

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